This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Our short-range outlook this week takes a first look into 2025 with the addition of Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, opening from Lionsgate on January 10. Additional updates are noted below.
For inquiries on forward-looking box office projection services, please contact us.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Kraven the Hunter‘s early pre-sales window has generally followed expected pathing in sample markets with initial traction slightly behind the likes of Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and Furiosa. There’s enough momentum at the moment to warrant a minor upgrade in expectations, though the comic book adaptation field still gives consideration toward volatility before next week’s release.UPDATE: Due to a calculation and publication error internally, this previous update is being redacted. We apologize for the confusion and will have an updated Kraven forecast before its December 13 release.- Conversely, Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is slower out of the gate in its early pre-sale modeling than projected. The pre-existing Tolkien fan base would normally be expected to generate noticeable upfront demand, but the anime nature of this film could also skew the typical demographics for the previously live-action-based franchise. Key comparisons at this point include The Boy and the Heron and Godzilla Minus One.
- Christmas week releases Mufasa, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, and Nosferatu continue to look encouraging in varying ways. The lattermost of the three is receiving rave reviews from early critics’ screenings.
- Den of Thieves 2: Pantera marks the new year’s first major studio new release. The male-driven action genre has seen steady results at the box office in recent years and Gerard Butler’s return, alongside O’Shea Jackson Jr. and 50 Cent, could reel in a sizable portion of the original film’s fan base. There isn’t much content targeting the same core audience immediately before or after opening, so this could be a candidate to perform on the upper end of expectations for now. The beginning of NFL playoffs the same weekend may have some impact.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/5/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Target OW Chg from Last Week |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Target Total Chg from Last Week |
12/13/2024 |
Kraven the Hunter |
Sony / Columbia Pictures |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
||
12/13/2024 |
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
-43% |
$23,500,000 |
$37,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
-47% |
12/13/2024 |
Nickel Boys (NYC Only) |
Amazon / MGM |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
12/13/2024 |
September 5 (Exclusive) |
Paramount |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
12/20/2024 |
The Brutalist |
A24 |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
12/20/2024 |
Homestead |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
-13% |
$9,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
|
12/20/2024 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$55,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
$232,000,000 |
$325,000,000 |
$290,000,000 |
||
12/20/2024 |
Nickel Boys (LA Expansion) |
Amazon / MGM |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
12/20/2024 |
The Room Next Door |
Sony Pictures Classic |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
12/20/2024 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
$62,000,000 |
$71,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
+6% |
$174,000,000 |
$210,000,000 |
$191,000,000 |
+3% |
12/25/2024 |
Babygirl |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,700,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
||
12/25/2024 |
Better Man (Platform) |
Paramount Pictures |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
12/25/2024 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
||
12/25/2024 |
The Fire Inside |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
||
12/25/2024 |
Nosferatu |
Focus Features |
$12,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$14,800,000 |
+14% |
$40,000,000 |
$64,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
|
12/27/2024 |
2073 |
Neon |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
1/3/2025 |
(no releases scheduled) |
|||||||||
1/10/2025 |
Better Man (Wide) |
Paramount Pictures |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
1/10/2025 |
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera |
Lionsgate |
$14,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
||
1/10/2025 |
Hard Truths (Expansion) |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
||
1/10/2025 |
The Last Showgirl (Expansion) |
Roadside Attractions |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.