This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Our update this week look ahead deeper into January of the new year with a set of post-MLK weekend openers.
Please note: Barring any significant updates, our next short-range tracking update will be published after the holiday season, likely by January 3 or January 10 at the very latest.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As the heart of holiday season approaches, Christmas Day will offer up something for almost everyone. Nosferatu remains the leader of the pack with strong advance pre-sales and audience interest metrics among horror fans, while A Complete Unknown is similarly impressing in its lead-up thanks to buzz around young female audience-friendly Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan, the iconic musical figure expected to draw also draw healthy interest from adult demographics.
- Additions this week include the weekend of January 24, 2025 when Angel Studios will open Brave the Dark and Lionsgate unveils Flight Risk, led by Mark Wahlberg and directed by Mel Gibson. This is typically the time of year in recent memory when moviegoing slows down a bit during winter (partly to accommodate for NFL playoffs in the United States). These counter-programmers will hope to stand out among the remaining lifelines of holiday holdovers.
- Also joining our public report this week to account for taking some time off before the new year begins, we’re peaking six weeks out to the frame of January 31. Companion will aim to bring out thriller/horror genre fans with Sophie Thatcher and Jack Quaid in the leads, while Dog Man hopes to turn the popular graphic novel source material into a successful animated family outing. Forecasts on these could shift higher in the weeks to come when marketing kicks in, but as always, models are fluid especially around the crowded holiday corridor beforehand.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/19/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
5-Day (WTFSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
12/25/2024 |
Babygirl |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,700,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$33,000,000 (-6%) |
12/25/2024 |
Better Man (Platform) |
Paramount Pictures |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
12/25/2024 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
$11,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 (+20%) |
$27,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$60,000,000 (+22%) |
12/25/2024 |
The Fire Inside |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$4,000,000 (-27%) |
$7,500,000 |
$13,500,000 |
$30,300,000 |
$18,900,000 (-27%) |
12/25/2024 |
Nosferatu |
Focus Features |
$12,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$14,800,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$64,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
12/27/2024 |
2073 |
Neon |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
1/3/2025 |
(no releases scheduled) |
||||||||
1/10/2025 |
Better Man (Wide) |
Paramount Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
|
1/10/2025 |
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera |
Lionsgate |
$14,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
|
1/10/2025 |
Hard Truths (Expansion) |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
1/10/2025 |
The Last Showgirl (Expansion) |
Roadside Attractions |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
1/17/2025 |
Levon’s Trade |
Amazon MGM Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
1/17/2025 |
One of Them Days |
Sony / TriStar Pictures |
$7,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$20,600,000 |
|
1/17/2025 |
September 5 (Expansion) |
Paramount |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
1/17/2025 |
Wolf Man |
Universal Pictures & Blumhouse |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$67,000,000 |
|
1/19/2025 |
The Goonies (2025 Re-Issue) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
1/24/2025 |
Brave the Dark |
Angel Studios |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,900,000 |
$31,500,000 |
$19,500,000 |
|
1/24/2025 |
The Colors Within |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
1/24/2025 |
Flight Risk |
Lionsgate |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$11,500,000 |
$33,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
|
1/24/2025 |
Presence (Expansion) |
Neon |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
1/24/2025 |
Untitled GKIDS Film (1/24/25) |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
1/26/2025 |
Between Borders |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
1/31/2025 |
Companion |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
|
1/31/2025 |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,500,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$62,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
|
1/31/2025 |
Green and Gold (One Week Event) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
1/31/2025 |
Love Me |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
1/31/2025 |
Valiant One |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.