This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Ballerina
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $26 – 34 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $30 million+
The Phoenician Scheme (Expansion)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 – 7 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: n/a
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Ballerina hasn’t quite matched earlier forecast models which outlined a potential debut closer to $39 million-plus, but final tracking across social channels, industry metrics, and pre-sale samples from exhibitors still indicate it should be a formidable R-rated action entry for genre fans this weekend.
- The review embargo won’t lift until late Wednesday, so that will be important to watch.
- Notably, the film has early preview screenings beginning Wednesday evening which may skew weekend projections. We’re assuming Lionsgate will include these grosses in the weekend haul, ala traditional Thursday previews, like Sony did with Bad Boys: Ride or Die on the same weekend last year.
- A modest PLF footprint (translation: no IMAX) and walk-up potential outside John Wick fans (hoping to catch more than a glimpse of Keanu Reeves as spoiled in marketing) will also be key factors.
- Lilo & Stitch will remain unrivaled for family business this weekend, only yielding some of its holdover premium screens to Ballerina. As such, attendance should remain sturdy as the hit Disney remake settles in for its leggy summer corridor.
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning will retain those aforementioned IMAX screens and hope to continue legging out on its own word of mouth merits, though it will inevitably face some cross-demographic competition with Ballerina entering the mix.
- Meanwhile, Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme enters semi-wide expansion at approximately 1,600 locations. The film didn’t match Asteroid City pound-for-pound in its platform debut last weekend, but it nonetheless represents another important addition to the early summer market.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 18 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($99.8 million), led by Bad Boys: Ride or Die‘s $56.5 million opening, and 26 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($158.3 million), led by the debuts of The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($46.7 million) and X-Men: Dark Phoenix ($32.8 million).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 8 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Lilo & Stitch (2025) |
Disney |
$38,000,000 |
-38% |
$343,900,000 |
~4,400 |
Ballerina |
Lionsgate |
$30,500,000 |
NEW |
$30,500,000 |
~3,200 |
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning |
Paramount |
$15,400,000 |
-43% |
$150,500,000 |
~3,500 |
Karate Kid: Legends |
Sony |
$10,000,000 |
-51% |
$36,800,000 |
~3,809 |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. |
$6,500,000 |
-40% |
$123,700,000 |
~2,600 |
The Phoenician Scheme |
Focus Features |
$5,700,000 |
920% |
$6,500,000 |
~1,500 |
Bring Her Back |
A24 |
$3,300,000 |
-53% |
$13,300,000 |
~2,449 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. |
$3,200,000 |
-39% |
$273,000,000 |
~1,600 |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel |
$3,100,000 |
-35% |
$187,100,000 |
~2,200 |
Friendship |
A24 |
$2,000,000 |
-22% |
$15,900,000 |
~1,300 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.