The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash remains behind its predecessor, The Way of Water, in pre-sale pacing. An increased field of competition is still notable for the three-quel, but time remains for momentum to build as audiences are likely to wait for the best premium screen seats. Early social media reviews have been largely positive. Outlooks are favorable for another long box office run into the new year that is less about opening weekend and more about staying power.
- For the same weekend, David and The Housemaid continue to reinforce a diverse slate leading into the heart of Christmas week as many work and school vacations begin. Both are seeing strong tracking trends as counter-programmers to the Avatar tentpole, but pre-sale trends are somewhat volatile for now.
- Looking into 2026, January is again light but with some possible standouts to help alleviate the post-holiday doldrums.
- Greenland 2: Migration will aim to leverage the first film’s COVID-era release and relative success in at-home viewing. Gerard Butler’s core audience and a PG-13 rating will be beneficial.
- Primate and Soulm8te are oddly positioned against each other as horror-thrillers on the same weekend. The former of the two has strong early reviews from critics, but muted social media buzz and an R-rating may hinder it. The latter unfortunately lacks commercial heat as a spin-off of the M3GAN franchise, which is coming off an under-performing sequel last summer.
- Mid-January, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple should bring back most of the franchise’s avid fans with the continuation of storylines introduced in 28YL, Ralph Fiennes leading the way, and the return of writer Alex Garland and producer Danny Boyle (Nia DaCosta takes over as director). Without the pent-up demand of the previous entry, we expect some slightly diminished returns domestically, but likely still enough to help greenlight the planned third film of the new trilogy.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/4/25
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
12/12/2025 |
Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas (25th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$2,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$4,600,000 |
$11,500,000 |
$12,300,000 |
12/12/2025 |
Ella McCay |
Disney |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
12/12/2025 |
The Shining (45th Anniversary) |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$2,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
12/19/2025 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney |
$95,000,000 |
$115,000,000 |
$103,000,000 |
$475,000,000 |
$560,000,000 |
$510,000,000 |
12/19/2025 |
David |
Angel Studios |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$83,000,000 |
$125,000,000 |
$110,000,000 |
12/19/2025 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$18,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$71,000,000 |
$136,000,000 |
$108,000,000 |
12/19/2025 |
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
Paramount Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$95,000,000 |
$156,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
12/25/2025 |
Anaconda (2025) |
Sony Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$83,000,000 |
$70,000,000 |
12/25/2025 |
Marty Supreme (Expansion) |
A24 |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$57,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
12/25/2025 |
Song Sung Blue |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
1/9/2026 |
Greenland 2: Migration |
Lionsgate |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$26,500,000 |
$43,000,000 |
||
1/9/2026 |
I Was a Stranger (Expansion) |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
||
1/9/2026 |
Primate |
Paramount Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
||
1/9/2026 |
Soulm8te |
Universal Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
||
1/16/2026 |
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple |
Sony Pictures |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.