This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
We’re back on our regular schedule to begin 2026 with this weekend’s projected box office outlay as the industry settles in for another relatively quiet (though up from last year) post-holiday corridor.
Greenland 2: Migration
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7.5 — 12 million
Primate
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $6.5— 11 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Greenland 2 will hope to duplicate some of the fellow Gerard Butler-led success of last year’s Den of Thieves 2 when it debuted around the same time, though pre-sales are trending behind that pic. A PG-13 rating could aid among walk-ups, but a light premium screen presence in comparison (thanks largely to Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s continued domination there) will dent dollar-for-dollar comps. This weekend’s start of the NFL playoff will also impact the male-leaning action sequel.
- Primate boasts a strong 91 percent Rotten Tomatoes critics’ score at the time of writing and this time of year has occasionally been very friendly to horror sleepers. The R rating will limit younger audience appeal, but marketing footprints have been notable with a rotating trailer presence in front of recent theatrical hits like Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 and Black Phone 2.
- While expected to land just outside the top ten, Searchlight and Disney will expand Is This Thing On? into semi-wide release as it continues to generate to positive buzz. Angel Studios is also pushing I Was a Stranger into semi-wide release, but the studio has not confirmed a location count.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $82 million+. That would be 17 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($71 million, led by Den of Thieves 2: Pantera‘s $15 million start) and 15 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($96.8 million, led by The Upside‘s $20.4 million start).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 11 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$22,300,000 |
-46% |
$344,600,000 |
~3,800 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$10,200,000 |
-47% |
$379,100,000 |
~3,100 |
Greenland 2: Migration |
Lionsgate |
$9,800,000 |
NEW |
$9,800,000 |
~2,700 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$9,000,000 |
-40% |
$90,800,000 |
~2,900 |
Primate |
Paramount |
$8,600,000 |
NEW |
$8,600,000 |
~2,900 |
Marty Supreme |
A24 |
$7,100,000 |
-43% |
$67,700,000 |
~2,800 |
Anaconda |
Sony |
$5,000,000 |
-50% |
$55,000,000 |
~3,400 |
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
Paramount |
$4,100,000 |
-51% |
$63,700,000 |
~3,000 |
Song Sung Blue |
Focus |
$3,400,000 |
-42% |
$30,600,000 |
~2,600 |
David |
Angel Studios |
$3,200,000 |
-58% |
$74,500,000 |
~2,600 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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