This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
2026’s first official holiday weekend hopes to keep some of the positive box office momentum going with one major studio opener and key holdovers driving the four-day performance.
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $20 — 25 million (4-Day)
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Fathom Re-Issue)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 6.5 million (4-Day)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Following last summer’s commendable 28 Years Later box office run and strong reviews, The Bone Temple promises to pick up from its predecessor’s cliffhanger ending as fans are eager to see the continued world-building and mythology-expanding efforts of Danny Boyle and Alex Garland’s respected horror franchise (this time, directed by Nia DaCosta).
- Reviews are very strong again with a 94 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from over 100 critics as of Wednesday. Pre-sales are unsurprisingly slightly behind those of 28YL without the same two-decade pent-up demand, but the film’s overall trajectory remains healthy and on track to motivate Sony’s anticipated greenlight of a planned third film in the new trilogy.
- Fathom’s re-release of The Lord of the Rings trilogy is poised to bring out Tolkien fans in force over the holiday frame as they celebrate the early weeks of the 25th anniversary of The Fellowship of the Ring (which opened in December 2001).
- Avatar: Fire and Ash will continue to hold well as it retains a sizable share of its premium screens and remains relatively competition-free in terms of direct demographics.
- Holdovers like The Housemaid and Zootopia 2, among others, will again show their sturdiness over the four-day weekend.
- Fresh off multiple Golden Globe wins, Hamnet will re-expand into an estimated 688 locations.
- As always this time of year, look for NFL playoffs to impact male-driven releases.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $75 million+. That would be 8 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($69.4 million, led by Mufasa‘s $12 million fifth frame and the $11.8 million start from One of Them Days) and 32 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($109.5 million, led by Glass‘s $40.3 million bow).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
4-Day (Fri-Mon) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 19 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple |
Sony |
$19,600,000 |
NEW |
$22,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
~3,000 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$15,700,000 |
-27% |
$19,100,000 |
$368,600,000 |
~3,450 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$8,400,000 |
-23% |
$10,100,000 |
$108,500,000 |
~3,000 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$8,200,000 |
-18% |
$10,600,000 |
$391,900,000 |
~3,000 |
Marty Supreme |
A24 |
$5,100,000 |
-33% |
$6,200,000 |
$80,100,000 |
~2,300 |
Primate |
Paramount |
$4,400,000 |
-61% |
$5,200,000 |
$19,200,000 |
~2,964 |
The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (25th Anniversary Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$4,000,000 |
NEW |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
~1,750 |
Greenland 2: Migration |
Lionsgate |
$3,600,000 |
-57% |
$4,200,000 |
$15,100,000 |
~2,710 |
Anaconda |
Sony |
$3,200,000 |
-36% |
$3,900,000 |
$59,600,000 |
~2,700 |
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
Paramount |
$2,800,000 |
-28% |
$3,600,000 |
$68,400,000 |
~2,200 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.