The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Hoppers posted $3.2 million from domestic previews entering Friday this weekend, with $1 million of that coming from early access shows last week. Pixar’s strongly reviewed film remains poised to surpass earlier expectations and recent standards as an original animated film with an opening weekend around or north of $40 million domestically. Look for Saturday business in particular to pop this weekend.
- The Bride! earned $1 million from Thursday’s previews, lining up with our recent forecasts and likely aiming at slightly under/over $10 million for the domestic debut frame. Read the previous analysis on both of this weekend’s openers here.
- Two weeks out, Project Hail Mary is taking off in pre-release buzz as Amazon MGM spools up the engines of its marketing machine in the days ahead. Social media reactions from industry screenings have been glowing, while pre-sales remain hot (especially among men and in premium formats).
- While there is always an inherent risk in misreading metrics for any type of fan-driven adaptation, we’re increasingly confident in the current signals pointing to a domestic launch north of $50 million and perhaps challenging for $60 million with growing potential to reach a considerable portion of the casual audience who only show up for a handful (or less) of movies in theaters each year.
- Horror has a knack for over-delivering in this day and age, and Lee Cronin is fresh off the success of 2023’s Evil Dead Rise. So, it’s no surprise that we’re publishing somewhat bullish forecasts for Lee Cronin’s The Mummy. The Warner Bros. pic hits theaters on April 17 and boasts positive social and trailer view metrics at the six-week window before opening.
- Modest competition from preceding horror titles in the spring may or may not influence forecasts in the weeks ahead, but as the only traditional horror pic from a major studio opening until deep into summer, word of mouth could carry it if audiences respond positively to this version of the IP (which is wholly unrelated to the Brendan Fraser films).
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 3/5/26
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
3/13/2026 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$17,600,000 |
$36,000,000 |
|
3/13/2026 |
Slanted |
Bleecker Street |
$500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
|
3/13/2026 |
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles II: The Secret of the Ooze (2026 Re-Release) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$700,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
|||
3/13/2026 |
Undertone |
A24 |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
|
3/19/2026 |
Dhurandhar: The Revenge |
Moviegoers Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
|
3/20/2026 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$45,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$150,000,000 |
$235,000,000 |
|
3/20/2026 |
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come |
Disney |
$9,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$11,500,000 |
$22,500,000 |
$37,000,000 |
|
3/27/2026 |
The Mummy Returns (25th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$750,000 |
$4,500,000 |
||
3/27/2026 |
They Will Kill You |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
||
3/27/2026 |
Untitled NEON Horror Film (3/27/26) |
NEON |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
||
4/1/2026 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal Pictures |
$90,000,000 |
$123,000,000 |
$350,000,000 |
$485,000,000 |
||
4/3/2026 |
The Drama |
A24 |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
||
4/10/2026 |
In the Grey |
Black Bear |
||||||
4/10/2026 |
You, Me & Tuscany |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
4/17/2026 |
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.