This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Project Hail Mary
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $60 — 78 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $55 million+
Dhurandhar: The Revenge
5-Day BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $13 — 18 million
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 — 11 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: n/a
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- It’s been a strong final week of pacing for Project Hail Mary, which is now trending above early tracking and potentially even higher than industry estimates, those being around $55 million for the domestic opening.
- Pre-sales are easily ahead of all 2026 releases up to this point, but we have to bake in the fact there is a considerable fan base (via Andy Weir’s original novel) excited for the adaptation — not to mention cinephiles eager to grab the best IMAX, 70mm, and premium screen seats. To that end, Dune: Part Two has emerged as our leading comp title given the similar release strategy, calendar timing, and core demographics.
- It’s that IMAX point that warrants caution entering the weekend. Outside pre-established audiences, casual moviegoers will be more than happy to wait a day or two (or even a week-plus) to get their hands on optimal seats rather than sit on the literal auditorium sidelines for what are becoming largely sold-out shows on the biggest and best screens this weekend.
- Word of mouth could easily carry this even higher than final forecasts, but time will tell. Critics are at 95 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, while audiences are a stellar 98 percent hot on the Popcornmeter following early access shows last weekend and Prime screenings on Monday.
- On the granular level, we’re expecting close to $10 million-plus from all domestic previews (including at least $7 million from Thursday shows, potentially more). Friday business is robust, but Saturday is shaping up to be truly impressive for what is a naturally matinee-friendly PG-13 movie (especially with its 2 hour and 36 minute run time). Look for Sunday to hold very well itself as premium screen demand spills over into the early days of release.
- Ready or Not 2: Here I Come continues to line up with earlier projections, though showing some potential to land closer to the low end of ranges. Reviews are largely encouraging with an 81 percent fresh score with models favoring last year’s Companion as we head into the weekend, so walk-up potential among genre fans remains notable.
- In specialty release, Dhurandhar: The Revenge bows mid-week and is looking to outperform the likes of Pushpa 2: The Rule and Kalki 2898 A.D. following very strong overseas performances.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $128 million+. That would be 91 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($67.2 million, led by Snow White‘s $42.2 million debut) and 8 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($139.3 million, led by the $71.1 million start from Jordan Peele’s Us).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 22 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM |
$70,600,000 |
NEW |
$70,600,000 |
~4,000 |
Hoppers |
Disney (Pixar) |
$18,900,000 |
-34% |
$116,000,000 |
~3,850 |
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come |
Disney (Searchlight) |
$9,000,000 |
NEW |
$9,000,000 |
~3,000 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal |
$8,700,000 |
-52% |
$31,900,000 |
~3,402 |
Dhurandhar: The Revenge |
Moviegoers Entertainment |
$8,200,000 |
NEW |
$15,000,000 |
~1,200 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount |
$4,700,000 |
-45% |
$114,400,000 |
~2,900 |
GOAT |
Sony |
$3,200,000 |
-31% |
$95,700,000 |
~2,300 |
Undertone |
A24 |
$3,200,000 |
-66% |
$15,200,000 |
~2,570 |
The Bride! |
Warner Bros. |
$900,000 |
-57% |
$13,000,000 |
~2,000 |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. |
$900,000 |
-46% |
$83,500,000 |
~1,500 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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