Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Pixar’s TOY STORY 5 and DC’s SUPERGIRL Set to Cap 2026’s First Half; JACKASS: BEST AND LAST, BACKROOMS, BREADWINNER, and Other Updates

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Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Toy Story 5 (Disney & Pixar / June 19) (Trailer)
  • Among the most beloved franchises in movie history, animation or otherwise, Pixar has yet to miss with a direct sequel in the Toy Story line with nearly $2.9 billion in global box office across four entries since 1995.
  • With a returning cast led by Tom Hanks and Tim Allen, plus writer/director Andrew Stanton (Finding Nemo, WALL-E, Finding Dory) and an ensemble cast that includes Keanu Reeves, Joan Cusack, Conan O’Brien, and many more, creative consistency is expected to again be a strength for the series’ first sequel in seven years.
  • Nostalgia will be a driver, but kids continue embracing the Toy Story saga as its sequels have been staggered and responsibly managed through the decades, being handed down to multiple generations. This film’s particular storyline about technology’s impact on parents and children could again hit home in a crowd-pleasing and meaningful way.
  • Incidentally, Lightyear‘s underperformance four years ago is not expected to have much lingering impact on the merits of this release.
  • With recent over-performances by family-driven and animated films, audience trends are pointing toward another blockbuster run as Pixar and Disney have already delivered massive successes across their biggest IP in post-pandemic years (Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Zootopia 2).
  • Competition will be present, but fairly modest, as it faces Minions & Monsters twelve days after opening. Multiple animated hits have coexisted in past summer seasons, so this won’t be a major concern. Disney’s own Moana live-action remake won’t arrive until TS5‘s fifth frame.
  • Representing the first tentpole animated release of summer (and post-April’s Mario Galaxy), boasting IMAX for at least its first week, and claiming the advantage of Father’s Day on opening Sunday, the stars are aligned for another Pixar family event and what will likely be one of 2026’s biggest films.
• Supergirl (Warner Bros. & DC Studios / June 26) (Trailer)
  • DC’s movie universe refresh got off to a positive start last year with James Gunn’s Superman, which also introduced Milly Alcock’s Kara (“Supergirl”) in a very buzzy cameo.
  • Anticipation for the first big-screen Supergirl film since 1984 is notable among DC fans, with many eager to see Jason Momoa’s turn as Lobo. Momoa himself could provide a minor boost to appeal among female moviegoers, though the recent Aquaman sequel notably declined in a precipitous way from its predecessor’s box office.
  • Unfortunately, female-led superhero movies have a mixed history. In the wake of blockbuster performances by 2017’s Wonder Woman and 2019’s Captain Marvel, as well as the COVID-era success of Black Widow, the likes of Birds of Prey, The Marvels, and Madame Web have fallen short of those box office standards for varying reasons.
  • This will be a very competitive summer across multiple demographics, so timing is a bit of a concern. Supergirl (likely to be driven by male comic book fans) opens two weeks after Disclosure Day, one week after the assumed-to-be-leggy Toy Story 5, five days before Minions & Monsters, and two weeks before the female-driven Moana remake.
  • Superhero films are not the novelty they once were more than a decade ago, while recent trailer sentiment for this particular film has produced some mixed reactions.
  • Ultimately, Supergirl‘s own reception will be important toward determining its long-term performance. Comparisons to Guardians of the Galaxy-like stylistic visual choices and color palettes have drawn an array of opinions, but those will ultimately be secondary to whether or not director Craig Gillespie’s film is compelling for moviegoers in an era when consumers are highly selective about which superhero movies earn their box office dollars.
• Jackass: Best and Last (Paramount / June 26) (Trailer)
  • Johnny Knoxville and company will bring out long-time fans, mostly millennial and Gen X men, with what’s proclaimed to be the troupe’s final Jackass film.
  • Sharing some audience crossover with the similarly male-driven Supergirl, and expected to be a “clip”-based feature with a minimal number of new sequences shot, it could be a little more challenging to reach past franchise box office heights or the numbers Jackass Forever achieved without competition during the post-COVID theatrical recovery window in early 2022.
  • Ultimately, with a low budget in mind, the ceiling for success here should be attainable and theaters will welcome every bit of midsummer counter-programming they’re offered.
• Other updates this week:
  • Backrooms continues to trend upward in forecasts, though we are cautioning not to read too heavily into highly robust pre-sale trends quite yet as there is still an element of potential front-loading by source material fans. We’ll look at final forecasts next week and monitor broader audience trends, but a breakout on some level appears imminent for A24’s latest release.
  • We’re slightly pulling back on models for The Breadwinner to err on the side of caution, but we remain generally optimistic about its chances to cater strongly outside typical metro areas where industry tracking focuses. Recent trends have been comparable to the likes of The Sheep Detectives and other recent family-centric box office hits. Sony and Nate Bargatze’s final marketing push after Memorial Day will be key to watch.

Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/21/26

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