‘Dunesday’ Scenarios: AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY ($340-369M+) and DUNE: PART THREE ($91-100M+) Tracking for Potential Record $440M+ Box Office Weekend

This is a free preview. Complete analysis and forecasts are available on BOT’s Substack

Aside from The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day, it’s been awhile since I’ve had so many questions about when a particular forecast would go live.

I’ve debated how to handle this one for many months as it became apparent neither Disney nor Warner Bros. would back away from the shared date. One can only editorialize so much, especially in an online ecosphere that’s already opined and meme’d this duet well beyond the point of discovery and exposure.

In a post-“Barbenheimer”, post-“Glicked”, and post-whatever-we-collectively-agreed-to-call-the-Spidey-Odyssey-weekend world, “Dunesday” has an even higher and more improbable threshold to truly surprise those with astronomical hopes and expectations… but that certainly won’t make the forthcoming achievements any less impressive.

Let’s dive in.

Notes, Tracking Factors, & Rationale:

• Key Talking Points (For Now) and Targets
  • The biggest aggregate box office weekend of all time just occurred a few months ago when Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s domestic record $360.1 million launch, combined with The Odyssey‘s stellar $51.1 million third weekend hold, drove a market total of $437.1 million ($411.2 million from the MCU and Christopher Nolan duo alone). That broke late April 2019’s record of $402.1 million (when Avengers: Endgame opened). As long as holdovers like Violent Night 2, Focker In-Law, Hexed, and Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping still register a few dollars with spillover business, December 18 – 20, 2026 has a great shot at besting that $437.1 million.
    • The top December frame ever should be toast based on very long lead pre-sale trends already. That is/was the weekend of Star Wars: The Force Awakens, whose $248 million opening anchored a (then) all-time record $313.3 million domestic weekend.
  • Traditional tracking, social media awareness, pre-sales, ridiculous trailer shares and footprints… these movies have it all. Whatever you think the best comparable movies tracked in these categories are, you’re probably right. The sheer uniqueness of the head-to-head launch dwarfs anything the industry has seen before, which is why both studios got a head start on ticket availability by the end of summer. Where Barbie + Oppenheimer and Wicked + Gladiator II were designed as more apparent gender-friendly counter-programmers with crossover potential, Avengers and Dune share a very large fan base with a lean toward men (especially in Dune‘s case).
  • That latter point created some concern, and perhaps still does for some. However, a mid-December launch is one of the very few calendar points where positioning this kind of uber-event somewhat lessens the concern of audience cannibalism as the December 18 – 20 weekend dovetails straight into the heart of holiday breaks from school and work. Because of these two movies, like Star Wars: The Force Awakens on the same exact same date 11 years ago, Christmas vacations for many won’t wait to start on Monday, December 21… they start the evening of Thursday, December 17.
    • Countering that point, while holiday corridors usually lend themselves to larger-than-average multipliers, the sheer scale of upfront interest in Doomsday could skew all 1:1 comparisons as consumer habits have evolved since the Star Wars sequels and reception will ultimately determine what post-opening trends look like. Even 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home may not be the ideal mirror to hold up as post-pandemic moviegoing was just starting to rebound at the time.
• Why Doomsday Could Break Spidey’s $360 Million Opening Record
  • Gen Z and Word of Mouth
    • Always and forever, first and foremost, word of mouth spreads like wildfire in 2026 and can immediately impact daily business after so many people turn out on Thursday and Friday. That could be a good thing for a franchise trying to rediscover its full-power mojo and bring back maximum audience draw with a decidedly alluring hook. Additionally, we know millennial and Gen X fans are excited for another great Marvel epic, but younger audiences have been less of a certainty when it comes to comic book movies in recent years. Take nothing for granted, but we think this is on its way to becoming a multi-generational outing as Gen Z has played a major role in 2026’s box office storyline so far.
  • Historic Pre-Sale Trends
    • Complete Analysis & Forecasts on BOT’s Substack

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/12/26

All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.