Please note: Due to the holiday schedule and the absence of new releases until January 9 after this week, we will likely hold off on a weekend forecast for New Year’s weekend. (Subject to change, of course.)
2nd Note: Anaconda’s forecast has been revised slightly upward from Tuesday’s initial publication.
This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The holiday hustle is in full force, and that will be true at theaters this weekend as the next three of seven total major studio releases go nationwide for the peak Christmas and New Year’s corridor.
Marty Supreme
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $13.5 — 19.5 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Anaconda
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $12 — 18 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Traditional Industry Tracking: $20 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Song Sung Blue
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7.5 — 13 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Traditional Industry Tracking: $10 — 14 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- This is the time of year when box office projecting gets wonky, to say the least. Although Avatar: Fire and Ash opened on the absolute low end of expectations last weekend, the franchise’s history gives some credit for expecting another leggy run and a strong sophomore frame hold with continued premium screen demand in mind.
- Marty Supreme continues to emerge as a sleeper thanks to strong reception, award season contention, and most certainly, Chalamet’s leading presence that can help court Gen Z moviegoers. The film scored the best platform debut of 2025 with $875K from just 6 locations last week.
- Anaconda and Song Sung Blue may be in a fierce fight among this week’s true new releases, at least in our models.
- While other industry projections indicate higher returns for Anaconda, we’re concerned with signals in social buzz, reviews (currently 32 percent fresh from just over 30 critics on Rotten Tomatoes), pre-sale activity, and general market competition. In fairness, the PG-13 rating and star power from Jack Black and Paul Rudd could bring in a walk-up crowd as the main comedy in theaters this holiday, but some of that thinking is also a carryover from pre-pandemic and pre-streaming consumer habits.
- Song Sung Blue, meanwhile, is meeting the high-end of pre-sale expectations as a possible feel-good musical for adults. While it would be crazy to expect another Greatest Showman-type of run, there’s no doubt that Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson’s performances are anchoring interest.
- From a higher level view, it’s worth keeping in mind that the next three episodes of Netflix’s Stranger Things release on streaming this Christmas night. As one of the most buzzed-about pop culture events in quite some time, leading up to the series finale on New Year’s Eve, it’s possible those at-home viewing hours will have some varying impact on movie attendance this weekend.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $162 million+. That would be 2 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($159.4 million, led by Sonic 3‘s $37 million and Mufasa‘s $36.8 million second weekends) and 13 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($186.8 million, led by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker‘s $72.4 million sophomore frame).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
4-Day (Thu-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 28 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$61,000,000 |
-32% |
$80,400,000 |
$206,400,000 |
~3,800 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$18,200,000 |
23% |
$23,200,000 |
$319,700,000 |
~3,300 |
David |
Angel Studios |
$15,400,000 |
-30% |
$20,900,000 |
$51,800,000 |
~3,118 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$14,000,000 |
-26% |
$19,000,000 |
$45,600,000 |
~3,015 |
Marty Supreme |
A24 |
$11,000,000 |
1157% |
$17,900,000 |
$18,800,000 |
~2,800 |
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
Paramount |
$12,500,000 |
-20% |
$17,100,000 |
$41,200,000 |
~3,557 |
Anaconda |
Sony |
$10,400,000 |
NEW |
$16,500,000 |
$16,500,000 |
~3,400 |
Song Sung Blue |
Focus |
$7,300,000 |
NEW |
$11,100,000 |
$11,100,000 |
~2,400 |
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 |
Universal |
$6,000,000 |
-21% |
$8,300,000 |
$121,900,000 |
~2,500 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal |
$6,000,000 |
23% |
$7,900,000 |
$332,200,000 |
~2,600 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.