This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- This week’s headline addition to the public forecast, How to Train Your Dragon, is positioned as one of the cornerstone family films of summer 2025.
- The original animated trilogy is beloved by audiences of varying ages, and the return of director Dean DeBlois for this live-action adaptation of the Cressida Cowell’s best-selling novels promises to maintain much of the stylistic and creative tone of the prior films.
- Pre-sales are in very early days, but interest and awareness are healthy among parents with a lean toward women over 35.
- Whether or not enough time has passed for generational nostalgia to drive a massive blockbuster run akin to Disney’s peak live-action run in the 2010s remains to be seen, and mid-run competition from Lilo & Stitch could be a factor. The same can be said of June 20’s Elio, but it’s the time of year when multiple family films can coexis.
- Courting a very different crowd on the June 13 frame, A24’s Materialists will look to attract the distributor’s core fans and branch out into mainstream appeal with its ensemble cast led by Pedro Pascal, Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, and others. Initial demographic and genre comps include last year’s Babygirl and Challengers.
- In other updates closer to release:
- Final Destination: Bloodlines pre-sales have started off on an encouraging foot, pacing ahead of Smile 2 and The Exorcist: Believer in exhibitor samples.
- Hurry Up Tomorrow continues to benefit from The Weeknd’s fan base driving pre-sales, which also makes forecasts volatile with regard to projecting late-stage pre-sales and walk-up business.
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is living up to earlier forecast models with pre-sales kicking off this week. PLF demand is naturally very strong, but we continue to anticipate a likely franchise-best opening pending final marketing and the impact of critics’ reviews and word of mouth over Memorial weekend. In tandem with Lilo & Stitch, as we previously reported last month, the holiday weekend is shaping up to be a potential record-breaker.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/1/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Distribution Studio |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
5/9/2025 |
Clown in a Cornfield |
RLJ Entertainment / Shudder |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
5/9/2025 |
Fight or Flight |
Vertical Entertainment |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,750,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
2.00 |
|
5/9/2025 |
Friendship |
A24 |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
5/9/2025 |
Juliet & Romeo |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,350,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
1.85 |
|
5/9/2025 |
Shadow Force |
Lionsgate |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
2.00 |
|
5/13/2025 |
Show Me Your Glory |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
5/14/2025 |
ATEEZ WORLD TOUR [TOWARDS THE LIGHT: WILL TO POWER] IN CINEMAS |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
||||
5/16/2025 |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$28,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$66,000,000 |
$89,000,000 |
$78,500,000 |
2.45 |
|
5/16/2025 |
Hurry Up Tomorrow |
Lionsgate |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
1.85 |
|
5/16/2025 |
Magic Farm (Expansion) |
Mubi |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
5/16/2025 |
Next Sohee |
Zurty Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
5/16/2025 |
The Ruse |
Seismic Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
5/17/2025 |
MetOpera: Salome |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
5/23/2025 |
The Last Rodeo |
Angel Studios |
$6,500,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$16,500,000 |
$31,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
3.07 |
5/23/2025 |
Lilo & Stitch |
Disney |
$96,000,000 |
$116,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$130,500,000 |
$290,000,000 |
$365,000,000 |
$331,000,000 |
3.15 |
5/23/2025 |
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning |
Paramount Pictures |
$59,000,000 |
$67,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
$175,000,000 |
$225,000,000 |
$205,000,000 |
3.15 |
5/30/2025 |
Bring Her Back |
A24 |
$7,500,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
2.56 |
|
5/30/2025 |
Karate Kid: Legends |
Sony Pictures |
$45,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$47,000,000 |
$120,000,000 |
$172,000,000 |
$130,000,000 |
2.77 |
|
5/30/2025 |
The Phoenician Scheme (Limited) |
Focus Features |
$750,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
n/a |
||||
5/31/2025 |
MetOpera: Il Barbiere di Siviglia |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
6/6/2025 |
Ballerina |
Lionsgate |
$39,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
$132,000,000 |
$113,000,000 |
2.51 |
|
6/6/2025 |
Brokeback Mountain (20th Anniversary) |
Focus Features |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
6/6/2025 |
Dan Da Dan: Evil Eye |
GKIDS |
$750,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$850,000 |
$1,700,000 |
$1,100,000 |
1.10 |
|
6/6/2025 |
Dangerous Animals |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
6/6/2025 |
The Life of Chuck |
NEON |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
6/6/2025 |
The Phoenician Scheme (Wide Expansion) |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
3.16 |
|
6/6/2025 |
The Ritual |
XYZ Films |
n/a |
|||||||
6/13/2025 |
How to Train Your Dragon (2025) |
Universal Pictures |
$65,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$72,000,000 |
$195,000,000 |
$247,000,000 |
$230,000,000 |
3.19 |
|
6/13/2025 |
Materialists |
A24 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
||
6/13/2025 |
Untitled Shudder Film |
Shudder |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
6/15/2025 |
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.