Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Can MICHAEL ($52-65M+) Set the Stage for a Late Spring Smash?; PROJECT HAIL MARY ($50-60M+) and SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE Check-Ins

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Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Michael (April 24 / Lionsgate)
  • There’s no denying a massive generational popularity for the late king of pop, Michael Jackson. Key audience demographics will be those over the age of 35 to 40, with a lean toward female-driven attendance. They’re the brackets that drove Elvis to box office heights four years ago, and not far from Bohemian Rhapsody‘s make-up (which was more evenly split between men and women). Our current forecasts put it in record territory as far as music-driven biopics go, yet the ceiling could still be even higher.
  • It’s impossible to discuss the biopic without factoring in other long-held sentiments and opinions on the biopic’s subject, which may or may not factor into theatrical demand as this film isn’t expected to cover much of Jackson’s later years in life and career. Nevertheless, headlines surrounding the split into two films and controversial reactions from the Jackson estate have created a fair amount of buzz and press over the past couple of years.
  • Audience curiosity will also be in play as Michael’s nephew, Jaafar Jackson, takes on the role of his iconic uncle. A strong ensemble including Colman Domingo, Nia Long, and Miles Teller won’t hurt either.
  • At present, Michael boasts an IMAX window that extends at least three weekends until Mortal Kombat II opens May 8.
  • Director Antoine Fuqua (The Equalizer trilogy, Training Day) and writer John Logan (Skyfall, Gladiator) boast reputations for delivering crowd-pleasing box office hits in their respective trades.
  • Combined with uncertainties surrounding word of mouth and how the film ends as a “Part 1”, proximity to May 1’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 creates significant volatility in forecasts as the latter sequel is also expected to perform robustly with similar target demographics.
  • All in, Michael is poised for a big launch on opening weekend. Regardless of how domestic long play shapes up, we can probably expect a sizable out-performance across international markets due to the popularity of Jackson and his musical library around the globe.
• Project Hail Mary (March 20 / Amazon MGM)
  • Closer to the home front, next week’s imminent launch of Andy Weir’s adapted novel continues to impress in late-stage tracking and pre-sales. The film has a limited early access footprint in premium screens this weekend, leading up to Amazon Prime screenings on Monday, then followed by the nationwide release next Friday.
• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (April 1 / Universal)
  • Pre-sales began earlier this week for the anticipated family-driven sequel that should still pack a significant amount of nostalgia with Yoshi being featured heavily in studio marketing (including as a featured popcorn bucket available at release). Early trends line up with our earlier expectations for a partial decline from the 2023 predecessor’s box office performance, but Galaxy is nonetheless building up to be mid-spring blockbuster catering to all ages.

Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 3/12/26

(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)