The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Scream 7 posted a franchise-best $7.8 million from domestic previews on Thursday, well north of Scream VI‘s $5.7 million three years ago. Noteworthy in that comp is that both films had fan event screenings included in previews, VI with 3D shows and S7 with higher-priced premium shows. With the studio not separating grosses, updating projections becomes a little tricky at this stage. Optimistically, the film could math out to north of $60 million, but we’re remaining a bit cautious since anything over $44.5 million will already be a franchise record — and early reception (37 percent from Rotten Tomatoes critics, 76 percent from audiences) is raising some concerns for late-stage sales and walk-ups.
- Unfortunately, we’re seeing increasingly low tracking signals for next week’s The Bride!, but as an original film, it may yet still show some late pop. We’ll revisit next week.
- Conversely, early pre-sales for Project Hail Mary are very encouraging. That initial demand is unsurprisingly driven by male audiences and die-hard fans of Andy Weir’s popular novel. Early industry screenings have inspired enthusiastic social media reviews from reputable critics, though, continuing to highlight potential for a word-of-mouth springtime hit.
- Preliminary forecasts for You, Me & Tuscany and In the Grey (opening April 10) are in the chart available to our Substack subscribers.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/26/26
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
3/5/2026 |
ENHYPEN [WALK THE LINE SUMMER EDITION] IN CINEMAS |
Trafalgar Releasing |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$900,000 |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
|
3/6/2026 |
The Bride! |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
|
3/6/2026 |
Dolly |
IFC Films |
||||||
3/6/2026 |
Hoppers |
Disney |
$22,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
$127,000,000 |
|
3/13/2026 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$17,600,000 |
$36,000,000 |
||
3/13/2026 |
Slanted |
Bleecker Street |
$500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
||
3/13/2026 |
Undertone |
A24 |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
||
3/20/2026 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$42,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$140,000,000 |
$210,000,000 |
||
3/20/2026 |
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come |
Disney |
$9,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$22,500,000 |
$37,000,000 |
||
3/27/2026 |
The Mummy Returns (25th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$750,000 |
$4,500,000 |
||
3/27/2026 |
They Will Kill You |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
||
3/27/2026 |
Untitled NEON Horror Film (3/27/26) |
NEON |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
||
4/1/2026 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
4/3/2026 |
The Drama |
A24 |
||||||
4/10/2026 |
In the Grey |
Black Bear |
||||||
4/10/2026 |
You, Me & Tuscany |
Universal Pictures |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.