Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THUNDERBOLTS* Check-In ($67-70M+); Preliminary Outlooks for KARATE KID: LEGENDS ($45M+) and BALLERINA ($39M+)

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Thunderbolts* imminent summer movie season kick-off received an encouraging jolt of marketing this week thanks to the social media review embargo lift from select critics. While these particular indicators aren’t always fool-proof for forecast impact until a wider sampling of critics chime in (which will happen April 29), the early word is encouraging and supports recent tracking. Currently, models point toward a potential $10 million domestic Thursday preview result next week, which would generally line up with the low-to-mid forecast range we’ve been tracking in recent months. Word of mouth will dictate whether or not it can see additional acceleration in the final days before, and early hours after, opening day.
• Opening the weekend after Memorial Day, Karate Kid: Legends is in an intriguing position with nostalgia and younger generation interest potentially driving the crossover sequel led by Jackie Chan and Ralph Macchio. If buzz close to release accelerates, we wouldn’t rule out a performance nearer to 2010’s franchise entry ($55.7 million), but this legacy sequel nonetheless is trending well in trailer and social metrics with audience demographics likely comparable to the recent Ghostbusters and Creed sequels, strong with males up and down the age brackets. Its biggest challenge might be competing with Lilo & Stitch‘s family audience.
• A24’s Bring Her Back is shaping up as a healthy counter-programmer on the post-holiday frame with strong trailer reception and the studio brand looking to serve as a drawing element. Horror has been somewhat overexposed in recent months, though, so reviews, marketing, and reception will be key to watch as forecasts evolve.
• One week later, Lionsgate’s Ballerina will aim to expand the John Wick franchise in solid form with Ana de Armas taking the lead and early trailer reception being very positive. Some diminished returns from the recent Wick sequels is natural to expect as a spin-off, but the promise of a Keanu Reeves cameo highlighted in Ballerina‘s trailers will almost certainly raise awareness and interest among some of the brand’s casual audience.
• Opening in limited play on May 30 before a wide expansion on June 6, Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme is positioned to replicate some of the summer arthouse success his Asteroid City enjoyed two years ago. Another sprawling all-star ensemble, led by Benicio del Toro this time, is right in the director’s broader wheelhouse when courting his reliable fan base.
• Closer to the home front, we’ve temporarily removed The Surfer from public forecasts as the film is trending to potentially over-perform prior expectations and we’re reassessing models. We’ll confirm and revisit those forecasts during next week’s release window.

6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/24/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.