This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Brief written update this week (which is incidentally fitting given the slow status of the mid-fall box office). Quick notes and full top ten forecast below.
Black Phone 2
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $21.5 — 26.5 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $16 — 17 million+
Good Fortune
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $6 — 10 million
Truth & Treason
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2 — 4 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Black Phone 2 is garnering strong reviews (85 percent fresh from 39 RT critics) and enters a market starved for new content in the middle of spooky season. While The Conjuring: Last Rites arguably satiated some casual audience appetite for horror sequels recently, BP2 is in a position to enjoy a leggy run with two weeks until Halloween.
- Ethan Hawke remains a notable drawing factor for his haunting performance. Unfortunately, its PLF footprint will be muted, but appeal to walk-up crowds and young adults (notably women, in no small part thanks to Mason Thames’ growing stardom) could help it overperform versus industry expectations.
- Tron: Ares will retain a large portion of said premium showtimes this weekend despite expectations of a front-loaded run. As the marquee PG-13 title in the market right now, word of mouth among fans will be a key driver in its first chase weekend.
- Elsewhere, Good Fortune is pacing slowly in pre-sales compared to recent comedies, while Roofman hopes to start benefitting from healthy reception, Truth & Treason targets the Angel Studios faithful, and After the Hunt expands into semi-wide release.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 5 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($60.8 million), led by Smile 2‘s $23 million debut, and 51 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($129.8 million), led by the debuts of Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($36.9 million) and Zombieland: Double Tap ($26.8 million) alongside Joker‘s $29.3 million third frame.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 19 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal |
$24,000,000 |
NEW |
$24,000,000 |
~3,200 |
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$12,900,000 |
-61% |
$56,900,000 |
~4,000 |
Good Fortune |
Lionsgate |
$7,100,000 |
NEW |
$7,100,000 |
~2,700 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. |
$4,500,000 |
-34% |
$62,500,000 |
~2,700 |
Roofman |
Paramount |
$4,200,000 |
-48% |
$15,900,000 |
~3,362 |
Truth & Treason |
Angel Studios |
$3,600,000 |
NEW |
$3,600,000 |
~2,000 |
After the Hunt |
Amazon MGM |
$2,300,000 |
1348% |
$2,500,000 |
~1,200 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse |
Universal |
$2,000,000 |
-43% |
$30,000,000 |
~2,800 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. |
$1,600,000 |
-49% |
$175,500,000 |
~1,900 |
Soul on Fire |
Sony |
$1,300,000 |
-54% |
$5,200,000 |
~1,720 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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