This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
It’s Super Bowl weekend again, and that means another year when studios and their major openers are mostly taking a back seat to the American sporting event and its cultural impact.
Heart Eyes
Sony
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $7 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $6 – 10 million
Love Hurts
Universal
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $5 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4– 8 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Dog Man will aim to keep up its momentum as the kid-driven breakout following a $36 million domestic start, slightly above our optimistic tracking window last week.
- Among openers, Heart Eyes boasts the most potential as another well-reviewed horror (93 percent fresh from 42 Rotten Tomatoes critics). However, the R rating will limit young audience reach, while saturation of the genre in theaters recently will also bottleneck its potential. On the plus side, next week’s dual-holiday frame could benefit the release’s staying power.
- The other major studio opener, Love Hurts, is tracking below recent action-comedy films. It, too, may see a slight benefit from next week’s date-night friendly Valentine’s Day on Friday.
- Opening in limited release, the Becoming Led Zeppelin documentary is trending to stand out ahead of its wide expansion later this month.
- Parasite is also re-releasing in IMAX this weekend, but we’re holding off on forecasts due to muted tracking and pre-sales.
- Super Bowl weekend has historically deflated theatrical attendance in recent years, especially post-pandemic. Sunday itself will see most films decline between 50 and 75 percent, with female- and family-driven films likely to be hit slightly less hard.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 70 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($29.1 million, led by Argylle‘s second frame on Super Bowl weekend) and 48 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($95 million, led by the debut of The LEGO Movie: The Second Part on post-Super Bowl weekend).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 9 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$17,500,000 |
-51% |
$57,500,000 |
~3,885 |
Heart Eyes |
Sony / Spyglass |
$7,500,000 |
NEW |
$7,500,000 |
~3,000 |
Love Hurts |
Universal Pictures |
$5,800,000 |
NEW |
$5,800,000 |
~3,200 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
-37% |
$235,100,000 |
~3,000 |
Companion |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$3,300,000 |
-65% |
$15,400,000 |
~3,285 |
One of Them Days |
Sony / TriStar Pictures |
$3,200,000 |
-46% |
$39,600,000 |
~2,000 |
Flight Risk |
Lionsgate |
$2,200,000 |
-60% |
$24,700,000 |
~2,900 |
Moana 2 |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$2,100,000 |
-27% |
$456,700,000 |
~2,000 |
Becoming Led Zeppelin |
Sony Pictures Classics |
$2,000,000 |
NEW |
$2,000,000 |
Limited |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
$1,900,000 |
-42% |
$233,300,000 |
~2,100 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.