This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Lilo & Stitch
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $190 – 225 million (4-day)
Traditional Industry Tracking: $150 – 160 million+ (4-day)
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $75 – 85 million (4-day)
Traditional Industry Tracking: $75 million+ (4-day)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As we’ve been reporting for some time, Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be a historic one with potential to land anywhere between $325 million and $365 million (the usual caveats about volatile modeling apply more than ever here). What was already looking like a possible record-breaker is increasingly looking even bigger thanks to the tandem of Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, the former eyeing a new holiday record opening and the latter eyeing the best debut of the eight-film Tom Cruise franchise.
- The current 4-day Memorial opening record belongs to Top Gun: Maverick ($160.5 million).
- The current opening record from the Mission franchise belongs to 2018’s Fallout ($61.2 million 3-day).
- The biggest overall Memorial weekend is 2013’s 4-day domestic market gross of $314.2M, led by the openings of Fast & Furious 6, The Hangover Part III, Epic, alongside strong holdover business from Star Trek Into Darkness, Iron Man 3, and The Great Gatsby.
- For weekends year-round, the coming frame could rival recent 3-day windows when Moana 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine opened, potentially landing among the 10 biggest box office aggregate weekends in history.
- Friday and Saturday each have potential to eclipse $100 million in total box office for the first time Thanksgiving weekend last year. Friday is more likely, though, with the inclusion of Thursday night’s opener previews.
- Previews for Lilo & Stitch are currently tracking in the realm of $15 million to $18 million for Thursday’s shows beginning at 2pm. We’re pinpointing around $16.5 million as of Wednesday morning models. Timing is everything here as nearly one quarter of K-12 and more than three-fourths of colleges will be out on Friday, climbing to virtually all on Monday for the holiday itself.
- The film will have over 900 premium screens and 3D to its name this weekend as word of mouth, top-tier family appeal, and the sheer “cuteness factor” of Stitch are likely to carry the film for many weeks deep into summer.
- At 74 percent fresh from 65 critics on Rotten Tomatoes, Stitch is among the best reviewed Disney live-action remakes and is likely critic-proof for the most part as demand is strong among women, millennials, and Gen Z.
- Chalk this up to a wave of early 2000s nostalgia among today’s younger adults with budding families of their own and a film that holds more cultural relevance among modern audiences than older properties.
- Special shout-out to our Box Office Theory forum trackers, who were among the very first to spot trends suggesting what have become the current massive expectations for Lilo & Stitch this weekend.
- On the Mission side, Thursday’s previews (also starting at 2pm) are tracking above Dead Reckoning‘s $7 million start on a Tuesday night back in July 2023, also setting up for a leggy runway into early summer.
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- IMAX is a major driver here and throughout the entire weekend as Tom Cruise’s swan song in the three-decade-spanning cinematic franchise commands those screens and again promises the adult-driven audience loyal to the IP will be treated to more death-defying stunts performed by the iconic star.
- Reviews are very positive with 80 percent of 201 critics giving Final Reckoning a fresh rating on RT, cementing the series legacy of high marks in the realm of action and spy genre filmmaking that keeps its core audience coming back after all these years.
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- Though probably limited to the prime Angel Studios audience, The Last Rodeo continues to show similar metrics as Homestead and Bonhoeffer.
- Holdovers should be notable after Final Destination: Bloodlines over-performed with $51.6 million in its debut last week. Losing IMAX screens, plus the natural front-loaded nature of horror sequels, will be obvious in dollar-to-dollar drops this weekend, but it still serves as a counter-programmer among horror fans thanks to healthy reception. Likewise for Sinners and Thunderbolts*.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films (3-day) are tracking to earn 196 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($97.8 million, led by the debuts of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and The Garfield Movie) and 67 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($173.1 million, led by Aladdin‘s opening).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
4-Day (Fri-Mon) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Monday, May 26 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Lilo & Stitch (2025) |
Disney |
$170,626,000 |
NEW |
$215,626,000 |
$215,626,000 |
4,410 |
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning |
Paramount |
$65,100,000 |
NEW |
$81,800,000 |
$81,800,000 |
~3,700 |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. |
$16,800,000 |
-67% |
$20,800,000 |
$86,100,000 |
~3,523 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. |
$11,000,000 |
-28% |
$14,200,000 |
$261,500,000 |
~3,200 |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel |
$9,800,000 |
-41% |
$12,600,000 |
$174,400,000 |
~3,400 |
The Last Rodeo |
Angel |
$6,000,000 |
NEW |
$7,200,000 |
$7,200,000 |
~2,000 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. |
$3,900,000 |
-34% |
$5,100,000 |
$423,800,000 |
~2,900 |
The Accountant 2 |
Amazon MGM |
$2,800,000 |
-41% |
$3,600,000 |
$64,400,000 |
~2,200 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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