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Obsession
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $9.5 — 14.5 million
In the Grey
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $3.5 — 7.5 million
Is God Is
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 2.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- After a busy Mother’s Day weekend that saw year-over-year box office continue to improve, now standing around $3.1 billion versus $2.7 billion at the same point in 2025, it’ll be a battle of holdovers on this pre-Memorial Day frame.
- On the heels of strong word of mouth and co-existing audience bases, The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Michael could be in a close race for #1. We’re giving an edge to the latter as its audience retention rate should be a little more sturdy with an additional release week under its belt.
- Mortal Kombat II will see the usual video game audience decay rate built into its sophomore weekend, as well as a splitting of IMAX showtimes with the Top Gun and Top Gun: Maverick re-releases (timed for the former’s 40th anniversary).
- Note: It’s unclear whether Paramount will report grosses for the Top Gun re-releases separately or together since only one location count estimate was released by the studio. As such, we’re treating the duo as a combined gross in the chart below.
- Focus Features’ Obsession continues to trend well in pre-release models with a stellar 96 percent fresh score from 97 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of Wednesday morning. Pre-sales are outpacing the likes of Undertone and Hokum in our samplings, while comparing somewhat favorably to last year’s The Monkey in more bullish models.
- Meanwhile, In the Grey will court Guy Ritchie fans with a core male audience coming off the female-driven holiday frame last weekend, while Is God Is goes into semi-wide release from Amazon MGM.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $104 million+. That would be 3 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($101.8 million, led by Final Destination: Bloodlines‘ $51.6 million start) and 25 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($139.9 million, led by John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum‘s $56.8 million bow).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 17 |
Estimated Location Count (as of Tue) |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
$25,200,000 |
-34% |
$281,500,000 |
3,500 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney (20th) |
$24,900,000 |
-40% |
$183,600,000 |
4,100 |
Mortal Kombat II |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$16,500,000 |
-57% |
$65,500,000 |
3,500 |
Obsession |
Focus Features |
$11,000,000 |
NEW |
$11,000,000 |
2,200 |
The Sheep Detectives |
Amazon MGM |
$8,400,000 |
-44% |
$28,400,000 |
3,457 |
In the Grey |
Black Bear |
$5,900,000 |
NEW |
$5,900,000 |
2,000 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal |
$4,800,000 |
-28% |
$419,000,000 |
2,800 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM |
$4,100,000 |
-38% |
$334,600,000 |
2,200 |
Is God Is |
Amazon MGM |
$2,100,000 |
NEW |
$2,100,000 |
1,500 |
Top Gun & Top Gun: Maverick (2026 Re-Issues) |
Paramount |
$1,750,000 |
NEW |
$3,100,000 |
2,295 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.