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One Battle After Another
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $20 — 30 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $20 million
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $17 — 23 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $13 million+
The Strangers: Part 2
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 7 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $6 — 7 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- One Battle After Another continues to show volatile ranges of potential. Reviews are universally strong with a 98 percent fresh Rotten Tomatoes score from 127 critics, while pre-sales are noticeably ahead of Mickey 17 at the same point before release (though similarly premium screen-heavy) and similar to Killers of the Flower Moon.
- Still, it remains to be seen exactly how much Leonardo DiCaprio’s unrivaled star power over the last two decades brings out casual moviegoers across middle America and outside coastal major cities for what’s shaping up to be a strong award season player for filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson and distributor Warner Bros.
- Ultimately, word of mouth will be key for what is essentially going to be viewed as an original film by virtually all audiences. Opening weekend alone will likely not tell the eventual tale of OBAA.
- Gabby’s Dollhouse is skewing sharply toward young female audiences, i.e. the mom-and-daughter crowd, and should see a mix of fan-driven pre-sale demand with walk-up business as the first major kid-driven movie to open since The Bad Guys 2 and Freakier Friday last month.
- Unfortunately, The Strangers: Chapter 2 is pacing far behind its predecessor in exhibitor pre-sales while critics’ reviews stand at 25 percent fresh from an early sample size of 12 submissions.
- The re-release of Sam Raimi’s original Spider-Man trilogy could be a standout specialty player this weekend. We’re not currently offering up forecasts, but it could be a sleeper to sneak into the top ten depending how (or if) grosses are reported.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 4 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($84.4 million), led by The Wild Robot‘s $35.8 million debut, and 3 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($83.4 million), led by Abominable‘s $20.6 million start.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 28 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. |
$24,500,000 |
NEW |
$24,500,000 |
~3,500 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse |
Universal |
$20,000,000 |
NEW |
$20,000,000 |
~3,500 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony & Crunchyroll |
$8,400,000 |
-51% |
$119,300,000 |
~3,000 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. |
$7,600,000 |
-38% |
$162,200,000 |
~2,800 |
The Strangers: Part 2 |
Lionsgate |
$5,700,000 |
NEW |
$5,700,000 |
~2,600 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
$4,400,000 |
-29% |
$29,900,000 |
~2,200 |
Him |
Universal |
$4,000,000 |
-70% |
$21,100,000 |
~3,168 |
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale |
Focus Features |
$3,700,000 |
-42% |
$38,900,000 |
~3,100 |
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey |
Sony |
$1,600,000 |
-51% |
$6,300,000 |
~3,330 |
The Senior |
Angel Studios |
$850,000 |
-68% |
$4,500,000 |
~2,405 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.