This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Project Hail Mary
BOT Domestic 2nd Weekend Forecast Range: $43 — 49 million
They Will Kill You
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 6.5 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: n/a
Forbidden Fruits
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 3 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: n/a
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Project Hail Mary is about to show how wide its wings can spread. Amazon MGM’s biggest opener in history is riding tremendously positive word of mouth (96 percent on the Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter) after last weekend’s $80.5 million opening. The Ryan Gosling-led adaptation of Andy Weir’s beloved novel is playing robustly among its core male audience, and it’s also showing signs of broadening that reach to families with a wholesome PG-13, kid-friendly story. IMAX (where over 20 percent of the opening gross was generated) and other premium screens (over 30 percent) will remain high draws this weekend as the film faces no new competition for those prized auditoriums.
- On the opener front:
- They Will Kill You is tracking lightly as it opens just one week after the similarly-themed Ready or Not 2: Here I Come.
- Forbidden Fruits is breaking wide from IFC Films with pre-sale trends comparable to the studio’s recent releases.
- The Mummy Returns will celebrate its 25th anniversary as Universal re-issues the 2001 summer hit sequel.
- Bring Me the Horizon: L.I.V.E. in São Paulo will bring out fans of the electronic rock/metalcore band with Wednesday and Saturday’s select engagements.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $80 million+. That would be 17 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($69.25 million, led by A Working Man‘s $15.5 million start) and 38 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($129.5 million, led by Dumbo‘s $46 million opening).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 29 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM |
$46,200,000 |
-43% |
$153,800,000 |
~4,007 |
Hoppers |
Disney (Pixar) |
$12,300,000 |
-31% |
$138,200,000 |
~3,500 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal |
$4,700,000 |
-41% |
$41,300,000 |
~2,900 |
They Will Kill You |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$4,500,000 |
NEW |
$4,500,000 |
~2,700 |
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come |
Disney (Searchlight) |
$3,900,000 |
-57% |
$16,200,000 |
~3,010 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount |
$2,400,000 |
-44% |
$118,600,000 |
~2,300 |
GOAT |
Sony |
$2,300,000 |
-33% |
$102,000,000 |
~2,100 |
Forbidden Fruits |
IFC Films |
$2,000,000 |
NEW |
$2,000,000 |
~2,000 |
Undertone |
A24 |
$1,400,000 |
-54% |
$17,900,000 |
~1,900 |
The Mummy Returns (25th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
NEW |
$1,000,000 |
~1,350 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.