This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
After last weekend’s historic winter storm crippled large parts of the country, and moviegoing with them, theaters and audiences will try getting back to some semblance of normalcy with several openers and no football playoffs to distract.
Send Help
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $12 — 17 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $14 million+
Iron Lung
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $6 — 10.5 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: n/a
Melania
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 8 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $5 million+
Shelter
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 7.5 million
Traditional Studio Tracking: $5 — 7 million+
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Sam Raimi’s Send Help is winning over critics (94 percent fresh from 82 Rotten Tomatoes submissions) with a survival-based, dark comedy/horror-thriller that’s sure to appeal to the director’s fans. Rachel McAdams’ star presence and the relatable concept of a toxic boss and work environment could help stretch appeal to casual audiences. Pre-sales are very encouraging and the pic has a notable premium screen presence (3D included).
- Markiplier’s Iron Lung continues to be an impressive, if challenging, element in play at the box office this weekend. His fan base has propelled stellar grassroots pre-sale activity as the content creator rallies viewers from the video game community to see his feature film debut in theaters. As an independently produced and released adaptation, this is going to be a bright spot for him and the overall business regardless of where it lands at the box office.
- Amazon MGM’s Melania could be a sleeper candidate to perform among the top five. While expected to play more strongly in non-coastal markets, documentaries are often tough sells to modern theatrical audiences. The First Lady’s stature and connection to the state of today’s politics will be factors, both for and against the film’s commercial potential.
- Meanwhile, Jason Statham returns with his core male audience hoped to turn out on the weekend between NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl. Late-stage tracking has, unfortunately, fallen short of A Working Man and The Beekeeper.
- In general, look for strong holds over the weekend as many films saw depressed numbers last Saturday and Sunday due to the winter storm forcing people to stay home and more than 400 theaters to temporarily close. While the films themselves have to be attractive enough of a draw, theaters could see a modest rebound weekend with many in the mood to get out of the house.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $56 million+. That would be 25 percent below the same weekend in 2025 ($74.8 million, led by Dog Man‘s $36 million start) and 8 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($52.1 million, led by Glass‘s $9.6 million third frame up against the Super Bowl that year).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 1 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Send Help |
Disney (20th) |
$15,000,000 |
NEW |
$15,000,000 |
3,475 |
Iron Lung |
Centurion |
$7,000,000 |
NEW |
$7,000,000 |
~2,500 |
Melania |
Amazon MGM |
$6,600,000 |
NEW |
$6,600,000 |
~1,500 |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$5,500,000 |
-14% |
$385,900,000 |
~2900 |
Mercy |
Amazon MGM |
$5,100,000 |
-53% |
$19,200,000 |
~3,468 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$4,900,000 |
-8% |
$407,600,000 |
~2,700 |
Shelter |
Black Bear |
$4,800,000 |
NEW |
$4,800,000 |
2,726 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$3,200,000 |
-19% |
$120,200,000 |
~2,800 |
Marty Supreme |
A24 |
$2,600,000 |
-27% |
$90,600,000 |
~1,600 |
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple |
Sony |
$1,500,000 |
-56% |
$23,500,000 |
~2,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.