This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Brief analysis and forecasts below.
Superman
2nd Domestic Weekend BOT Range: $53 — 62 million
I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $12 — 17 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$15 million+
Smurfs
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 12 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$10 — 12 million
Eddington
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3.5 — 6 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Superman has shown his strength in (very) early daily patterns, driven by strong word of mouth (93 percent Popcornmeter audience score on Rotten Tomatoes) and IMAX demand (which accounted for 15 percent of the film’s $125 million opening weekend).
- I Know What You Did Last Summer projections have slid slightly since earlier long range targets but remain mostly in line with expectations up to this point. Exhibitor pre-sale samples are ahead of M3GAN 2.0 with demographic tracking slightly favored toward women and predominately over the age of 35. Early critics’ reviews are at 44 percent fresh.
- Smurfs remains far off what were already bearish expectations weeks ago. The brand is lacking awareness and interest among today’s generation of kids, as previously cautioned. Pre-sale samples are well behind the pace of The Garfield Movie and Elio while reviews are at 21 percent fresh. Any upside to the weekend and/or legs would be most likely to arise from a severe lack of animated competition this summer.
- Ari Aster’s Eddington counters this weekend with his and A24’s following expected to represent the cinephile-driven release. Pre-sale pacing is trailing Materialists and The Bikeriders at the same point while reviews stand at 66 percent fresh.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 11 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($145.5 million), led by the $81.2 million debut of Twisters, and 49 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($253.6 million), led by The Lion King‘s $191.8 million opening.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 20 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Superman (2025) |
Warner Bros. |
$56,700,000 |
-55% |
$235,400,000 |
~4,135 |
Jurassic World Rebirth |
Universal |
$22,400,000 |
-44% |
$274,700,000 |
~4,100 |
I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025) |
Sony |
$15,000,000 |
NEW |
$15,000,000 |
~3,100 |
Smurfs |
Paramount |
$9,900,000 |
NEW |
$9,900,000 |
~3,300 |
F1: The Movie |
Warner Bros. / Apple Studios |
$9,300,000 |
-29% |
$153,000,000 |
~3,100 |
How to Train Your Dragon (2025) |
Universal |
$5,600,000 |
-29% |
$250,800,000 |
~2,800 |
Eddington |
A24 |
$5,300,000 |
NEW |
$5,300,000 |
~2,000 |
Elio |
Disney / Pixar |
$2,500,000 |
-38% |
$69,100,000 |
~2,400 |
Lilo & Stitch (2025) |
Disney |
$1,800,000 |
-34% |
$418,400,000 |
~1,600 |
28 Years Later |
Sony |
$1,600,000 |
-42% |
$69,000,000 |
~1,400 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.