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With Snow White opening on point with subdued expectations last week, it’ll be another relatively light weekend in movie theaters. Some moderately good news arrives, though, with several openers and two trending to stand out. That said, the restart of March Madness with the NCAA men’s basketball tournament this weekend could impact some films, notably male-driven pics.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- A Working Man is hoping to duplicate The Beekeeper‘s success as pre-release tracking and pre-sale trends indicate it could land near that film’s mid-teens million opening last year. Jason Statham and director David Ayer’s latest collaboration boasts a 65 percent fresh Rotten Tomatoes score from 23 reviews and is tracking strongest among men over 35 but with a fair balance of female appeal. As noted, though, the NCAA tournament could skew projections here.
- The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 is poised to deliver the best launch yet for the faith-based series being distributed under Fathom Entertainment’s banner. The previous four seasons have increasingly built upon their theatrical success as the episodic launches are now viewed as appointment viewing for their core audience. Counting Thursday’s first day of earnings (which Fathom often excludes from the weekend, unlike traditional studio Thursday previews), the first of three Last Supper parts looks likely to net more than $10 million by Sunday’s end.
- It could be a tight race between Death of a Unicorn and The Woman in the Yard among the last two major openers. The former has A24’s brand following and Jenna Ortega’s star power on its side, though reviews are teetering on mixed with a 60 percent fresh score for the dark comedy among 75 reviews. Meanwhile, The Woman in the Yard hopes to stand its own Blumhouse branding and a teen-friendly PG-13 rating. That said, critics are embargoed from sharing reviews until 9pm Eastern on Thursday after previews have already started. That’s not usually a signal of confidence.
- As far as Snow White is concerned, it will retain many premium screens but word of mouth is decidedly complex to assess among casual family audiences. A steep drop is expected despite any presence of notable competition.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 52 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($130 million, led by Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire‘s debut and Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire‘s second frame on Easter weekend) and 52 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($129.5 million, led by Dumbo‘s opening).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 30 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Snow White |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
-60% |
$69,600,000 |
~4,200 |
A Working Man |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$13,400,000 |
NEW |
$13,400,000 |
~3,000 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 |
Fathom Entertainment |
$8,700,000 |
NEW |
$10,800,000 |
~2,200 |
Death of a Unicorn |
A24 |
$6,600,000 |
NEW |
$6,600,000 |
~2,500 |
The Woman in the Yard |
Universal Pictures |
$6,000,000 |
NEW |
$6,000,000 |
~2,800 |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$2,700,000 |
-33% |
$196,400,000 |
~2,600 |
Black Bag |
Focus Features |
$2,400,000 |
-44% |
$19,000,000 |
~2,400 |
Mickey 17 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$2,000,000 |
-46% |
$43,600,000 |
~2,100 |
Novocaine |
Paramount Pictures |
$2,000,000 |
-46% |
$19,400,000 |
~2,800 |
The Alto Knights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$1,700,000 |
-46% |
$6,200,000 |
~2,651 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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