This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
A brief reprieve from major studio releases is on hand this weekend as the crop of late spring box office hits get a chance to stretch their legs before the early summer slate resumes in earnest over the next few weeks.
Sinners (Weekend #4)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $24 – 28 million
Thunderbolts* (Weekend #2)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $35 – 40 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Thunderbolts* is not only aiming to ride a wave of excellent audience word of mouth (94 percent Popcornmeter on Rotten Tomatoes) and critical reception (88% critics’ Tomatometer), this week’s marketing stunt unveiling the film’s in-joke/reveal as “The New Avengers” to the wider world might help compound interest and buzz among casual viewers who’ve still been on the fence about the latest MCU chapter.
- Sinners will remain a force to be reckoned with in its fourth frame after dropping just 27.6 percent against the Marvel release despite losing IMAX auditorium prices last weekend.
- Likewise, A Minecraft Movie faces no new competition for its target family audience, a trend that will continue to support its mid-to-late run legs until Lilo & Stitch arrives over Memorial Day.
- Among new releases, Clown in a Cornfield is the likely standout with a 94 percent fresh score from 47 RT critics, bolstering its prospects among horror genre die-hards. Still, with indie-level marketing and distribution reach, it’s likely more comparable to films like Terrifier and Late Night with the Devil than mainstream studio fare.
- Also debuting are Fight or Flight (Vertical Entertainment), Juliet & Romeo (Briarcliff Entertainment), and Shadow Force (Lionsgate), but we’re not offering up public forecasts due to limited tracking and conservative box office prospects.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 5 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($91.3 million, led by Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes‘ $58.4 million opening) and 46 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($160.3 million, led by Avengers: Endgame‘s $63.3 million third frame ahead of Detective Pikachu‘s $54.4 million bow).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 11 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$38,000,000 |
-49% |
$132,400,000 |
~4,330 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. |
$25,600,000 |
-23% |
$219,700,000 |
~3,300 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. |
$9,300,000 |
-32% |
$410,400,000 |
~3,400 |
The Accountant 2 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$5,800,000 |
-39% |
$50,500,000 |
~3,200 |
Clown in a Cornfield |
RLJ Entertainment / Shudder |
$2,400,000 |
NEW |
$2,400,000 |
~2,000 |
Until Dawn |
Sony / Screen Gems |
$2,300,000 |
-40% |
$18,200,000 |
~2,300 |
The Amateur |
Disney / 20th Century Studios |
$1,200,000 |
-37% |
$39,100,000 |
~1,600 |
Shadow Force |
Lionsgate |
$1,000,000 |
NEW |
$1,000,000 |
TBD |
The King of Kings |
Angel Studios |
$950,000 |
-44% |
$59,300,000 |
~1,300 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.