This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory's Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
The summer box office is just around the corner, and Memorial Day releases are the focus of our tracking report this week as two counter-programming franchises hope to ignite the season's transition into school and work vacations.
Furiosa
Warner Bros. Pictures
May 24, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Marketing has generated considerable traction across key social media platforms for George Miller's follow-up to the Oscar-nominated Mad Max: Fury Road, which bowed to $45.4 million domestically on its way to $153.4 million in North America and $379.4 million globally.
- Anya Taylor-Joy's casting provides an opportunity to appeal to young millennials and Gen Zers as the actresses' career has taken off in recent years. Similarly, Chris Hemsworth's co-starring presence will appeal to both men and women as he returns to his action film wheelhouse.
- While pre-sales have not yet begun, we are expecting Miller and Mad Max fans to drive robust upfront interest. PLF formats, and especially IMAX, will dominate demand early on and throughout the film's theatrical run.
- If there are any significant concerns, it's the nine-year gap since Fury Road's breakout performance and no apparent return of its leads, Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron.
- Opening two weeks after Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and two weeks before Bad Boys: Ride or Die should give Furiosa fair runway to attract some casual action fans if reviews and reception are comparable to those of Fury Road.
The Garfield Movie
Sony & Columbia Pictures
May 24, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Animated comedy has been a reliable genre that's proven to bring back family audiences to the big screen experience in recent years following the pandemic and the peak of streaming. Chris Pratt also appeals to all quadrants, as evidenced with his animated voicing in The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
- The IP is certainly familiar to millennials, Gen Xers, and Baby Boomers, which enhances parental interest in this big screen take. The wild card aspect here will be how effectively Sony's marketing campaign can familiarize the title character with younger audiences as the Garfield brand has not been as prominent in pop culture in recent decades.
- Pent-up demand could be another driving force as it has been for other animated films in recent memory. It will have been over two months since the release of Kung Fu Panda 4 during the spring, meaning families with young ones will be eager for fresh and appealing big screen content.
- Memorial Day historically represents the end of the school year for most kids, timing perfectly for the release of this film as it eyes a lengthy summer run.
- On the front of post-release competition, Garfield's key source of direct audience crossover will be three weeks away: June 14's Inside Out 2.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
Extended 4-Week Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/25/24
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | Pinpoint OW Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Pinpoint Total Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 2024 | ||||||||
| 5/3/2024 | The Fall Guy | $32,000,000 | $44,000,000 | $78,000,000 | $153,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 5/3/2024 | Mars Express | GKIDS | ||||||
| 5/3/2024 | Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (25th Anniversary Re-Issue) | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | 20th Century Studios | ||
| 5/3/2024 | Tarot | $4,500,000 | $11,600,000 | Sony / Screen Gems | ||||
| 5/10/2024 | Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | $40,000,000 | $50,000,000 | $100,000,000 | $130,000,000 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||
| 5/17/2024 | Back to Black | Focus Features | ||||||
| 5/17/2024 | If | $29,000,000 | $35,000,000 | $87,000,000 | $116,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 5/17/2024 | The Strangers: Chapter 1 | $7,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $17,700,000 | $41,500,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 5/24/2024 | Furiosa | $40,000,000 | TBD | $105,000,000 | TBD | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 5/24/2024 | The Garfield Movie | $50,000,000 | $65,000,000 | $174,000,000 | $270,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 5/24/2024 | Sight | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | Angel Studios | ||
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After May 3, 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
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I can see “Garfield” opening in the 60-70M range, with “Furiosa” taking the 45-55 range, with potential to go higher. I think that and “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” stand to reap the benefits of a landscape short on full-on blockbuster spectacle.