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Fourth of July is set to see some fireworks at the box office this year thanks to several openers counter-programming an existing market of holdovers that finally started to provide a variety of content for various audiences in late June.
Here’s our rundown and early forecast for the long holiday corridor ahead.
Despicable Me 4
July 3, 2024
Universal & Illumination
5-Day WTFSS Domestic Weekend Forecast: $101 – 115 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Pre-sales have measured up to tracking expectations in recent weeks as the established brand of the franchise and the evergreen popularity of the Minions are again driving interest among kids and parents. The major source of competition, however, will be the excellent word of mouth still driving stellar returns for Inside Out 2 going into its fourth frame. A full premium screen footprint will benefit the Despicable sequel, a significant portion of which will come from A Quiet Place: Day One‘s opening weekend share of premium screen allocation.
Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot
July 4, 2024
Angel Studios
4-Day TFSS Domestic Weekend Forecast: $5 – 10 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Angel Studios’ grassroots marketing campaign has generated healthy interest among their target faith-based audience. Pre-release metrics and pre-sales are comparable to those of Cabrini and Sight earlier this year. Last year notably saw the studio open Sound of Freedom above and beyond all expectations around this time on the calendar.
MaXXXine
July 5, 2024
A24
3-Day TFSS Domestic Weekend Forecast: $5 – 9 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Ti West’s anthology trilogy will bring back fans of X and Pearl over the holiday frame as A24 once again has executed a successful marketing campaign targeted at their core audience for this niche horror/slasher release. Pre-sales have outpaced The Watchers, although that’s to be expected with the fan following in play.
Other Notable Releases This Weekend
- Kinds of Kindness (1,000 Theater Expansion)
This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 24 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($121 million) and 14 percent under the same weekend in 2019 ($174.2 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 7 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Despicable Me 4 | Universal / Illumination | $60,500,000 | $104,000,000 | ~4,000 | NEW |
| Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | $32,000,000 | $535,000,000 | ~4,100 | -44% |
| A Quiet Place: Day One | Paramount Pictures | $26,000,000 | $96,700,000 | ~3,707 | -50% |
| MaXXXine | A24 | $7,700,000 | $7,700,000 | ~2,200 | NEW |
| Bad Boys: Ride or Die | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $6,900,000 | $177,500,000 | ~2,900 | -33% |
| Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 | Warner Bros. Pictures | $6,600,000 | $23,100,000 | ~3,334 | -40% |
| Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot | Angel Studios | $5,600,000 | $6,900,000 | ~2,000 | NEW |
| The Bikeriders | Focus Features | $2,100,000 | $19,800,000 | ~2,000 | -36% |
| Kinds of Kindness | 20th Century Studios | TBD | TBD | ~1,000 | TBD |
| The Garfield Movie | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $1,000,000 | $91,700,000 | TBD | -50% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us.