This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Late summer’s box office is on fire thanks to a string of recent blockbusters and breakouts performing at or above even the high end of expectations. That trend is set to continue this weekend with a marquee battle for the top spot taking shape between the third weekend of Deadpool & Wolverine and It Ends With Us, which incidentally and respectively star real life partners, Ryan Reynolds and Blake Lively.
It Ends With Us
August 9, 2024
Sony Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $23 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $45 – 58 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The wildly popular source novel by Colleen Hoover and its fan base are serving to generate significant hype for this big screen adaptation, aided by star Blake Lively’s own star appeal among young and adult women. Our forecasts have climbed in recent weeks and still look to blow past our former expectations five weeks ago with fresh models, social media power, and pre-sale activity comparable to that of the Fifty Shades sequels and The Fault in Our Stars. The only minor concerns are a deflated average ticket price with minimal premium screen presence and the expectation for some front-loading alongside moderate walk-up sales.
Borderlands
August 9, 2024
Lionsgate
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $15 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $8 – 13 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The source video game’s fan base will be the most significant audience here as Deadpool & Wolverine continues to scoop up strong business from general audience action and comedy fans. An all-star cast led by Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, and Jack Black doesn’t hurt, nor does director Eli Roth’s own following. Still, that aforementioned fan base has been vocal about the degree of faithfulness in this movie to the games themselves across various online communities like Twitch and Reddit. A minor premium screen footprint will boost average ticket prices, but front-loading is expected.
Cuckoo
August 9, 2024
Neon
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: n/a
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $2.5 – 5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Thrillers and horror films from specialty studios are in the middle of a box office renaissance lately, including the likes of Longlegs, MaXXXine, and last summer’s Talk to Me. Of those three, Cuckoo is tracking closest to the middle title and at a slightly lower theater count than all three (and more comparable to Bodies Bodies Bodies). Appeal is strongest among adults, arthouse genre fans, and the LGBTQ+ community.
Other Notable Wide Releases:
- n/a
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 48 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($108.5 million, led by the fourth frames of Barbie and Oppenheimer amid the opening of The Last Voyage of Demeter) and 33 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($121.2 million, led by the second frame of Hobbs & Shaw alongside the breakout debut of Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark and several other openers).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 11 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $56,800,000 | $500,800,000 | ~4,200 | -41% |
| It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $48,600,000 | $48,600,000 | ~3,450 | NEW |
| Twisters | Universal Pictures | $15,200,000 | $222,900,000 | ~3,700 | -33% |
| Borderlands | Lionsgate | $9,800,000 | $9,800,000 | ~3,000 | NEW |
| Despicable Me 4 | Universal / Illumination | $8,800,000 | $330,700,000 | ~3,100 | -23% |
| Trap | Warner Bros. Pictures | $7,100,000 | $29,000,000 | ~3,181 | -54% |
| Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | $5,500,000 | $637,100,000 | ~2,300 | -19% |
| Cuckoo | Neon | $3,800,000 | $3,800,000 | ~1,500 | NEW |
| Harold and the Purple Crayon | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $3,100,000 | $12,200,000 | ~3,325 | -48% |
| Longlegs | Neon | $2,400,000 | $71,800,000 | ~1,700 | -43% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.