This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Fall movie season is here, and the box office is poised for its best start to this part of the calendar since before the pandemic thanks to a highly anticipated legacy sequel aimed at all audiences.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
September 6, 2024
Warner Bros. Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $80 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $95 – 125 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The original film is an undisputed cult classic that has evolved over the decades into a generational pop culture favorite among families, especially fans of Halloween season and Tim Burton’s deep library of crowd-pleasers.
- The return of Michael Keaton, Winona Ryder, and Catherine O’Hara alongside newcomer Jenna Ortega (whose presence should help lift appeal to younger moviegoers) is a strong nostalgic hook for Millennials and Gen Xers.
- Pre-sale activity has been consistently strong in the weeks leading up to release. Our sample markets indicate Thursday previews are pacing more than 16 ahead of Five Nights at Freddy’s at the same point this week, while nearly triple those of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. These comparisons also exclude strong sales from Wednesday’s early access shows.
- Weekend and chase week play are expected to be strong as well, despite some volatility to forecasts (Warner Bros. itself expects around $80 million). With appeal to families expected to be more robust than seasonal comps such as the It and Nun films, plus Labor Day and the return of school this week, late stage forecasting models are widely varied entering Wednesday.
- With Halloween itself just under two months away, healthy critics’ reviews (certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this morning) point to the more-than-fair chance of a leggy run through September and October.
Other Notable Wide Releases:
- El Candidito Honesto (Cinematica Media)
- The Greatest of All Time (AGS Entertainment)
- The Front Room (A24)
- Lover of Men: The Untold Story of Abraham Lincoln (Atlas Distribution)
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 65 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($81.7 million, The Nun II‘s opening weekend) and 9 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($123.5 million, It: Chapter Two‘s debut frame).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 8 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $104,000,000 | NEW | $104,000,000 | ~4,500 |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $7,900,000 | -49% | $614,100,000 | ~3,300 |
| Alien: Romulus | 20th Century Studios | $4,000,000 | -56% | $96,500,000 | ~2,800 |
| It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $3,900,000 | -47% | $141,100,000 | ~3,200 |
| Twisters | Universal Pictures | $3,500,000 | -55% | $265,700,000 | ~2,600 |
| Reagan | ShowBiz Direct | $3,400,000 | -56% | $15,600,000 | ~2,800 |
| The Forge | Sony / AFFIRM Films | $3,000,000 | -35% | $20,700,000 | ~1,800 |
| Blink Twice | Amazon MGM Studios | $2,000,000 | -58% | $20,000,000 | ~2,300 |
| Despicable Me 4 | Universal / Illumination | $1,600,000 | -61% | $357,600,000 | ~2,200 |
| AfrAId | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $1,300,000 | -64% | $6,400,000 | ~3,003 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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