This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
May’s third weekend brings the summer season’s first family-friendly release courtesy of Paramount and director John Krasinski, whose early directorial career has already delivered box office hits via A Quiet Place and its sequel.
Meanwhile, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes hopes to rally behind positive word of mouth (80 percent from critics and 79 percent from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes) as the primary adult-driven action tentpole holding over from a solid $58.4 million debut above expectations last weekend.
Last but not least, Lionsgate will court horror genre fans with The Strangers: Chapter 1, while Focus Features targets Amy Winehouse’s following with Back to Black in limited release.
IF
Paramount Pictures
May 17, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $33 – 42 million
Key Tracking Factors:
- Pre-sales have been healthy for an original IP with no obvious fan-driven rush, an encouraging sign that the film could capitalize on its status as the first family-friendly of the nascent summer season with Memorial Day and school vacations just over a week out from taking a fuller force.
- Opening one week before the aforementioned holiday frame and beginning of summer vacations will probably skew some forecasting models focused on preview and opening weekend sales.
- In our models of sample domestic markets, Thursday previews are pacing 13 percent behind The Fall Guy, 11 percent behind Kung Fu Panda 4 , and 53 percent behind Wonka, the latter of which benefited from established IP, a Christmas week debut, and Timothée Chalamet’s following. IF‘s Friday and Saturday attendance and walk-up sales are expected to pick up further traction without any built-in fan awareness to front-load pre-sales.
- The star-driven cast anchored by Ryan Reynolds and voice roles by Steve Carell, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Awkwafina, and others raises appeal for both parents and younger audiences. Unfortunately, an early 53 percent from 35 critics on Rotten Tomatoes could temper some enthusiasm among adults unless their kids ultimately sway them for a trip to the theater.
The Strangers: Chapter 1
Lionsgate
May 17, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $6 – 10 million
Key Tracking Factors:
- Thursday preview sales are currently outpacing The First Omen, while registering around one-third the pace of The Exorcist: Believer at the same point before release.
- The original 2008 film has become a cult classic following its $52.6 million domestic run at the time.
- Despite the lack of a strong horror holdover in theaters right now, with Tarot earning $3.4 million in its second frame last week, marketing for Strangers has been somewhat muted and the overall genre has been hit with a string of under-performers and over-exposure in recent months.
Back to Black
Focus Features
May 17, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $3 – 6 million
Key Tracking Factors:
- Amy Winehouse fans are frontloading early access sales with those shows being held on Wednesday evening, though weekend sales are notably healthier than Thursday’s traditional pre-shows.
- Unfortunately, critics’ reviews sit at 40 percent from 80 submissions on Rotten Tomatoes.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 21 percent less than the same weekend in 2023 ($118.7 million) and 33 percent less than the same weekend in 2019 ($139.9 million).
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 19 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| IF | Paramount Pictures | $38,300,000 | $38,300,000 | ~4,000 | NEW |
| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | 20th Century Studios | $26,000,000 | $101,700,000 | ~4,075 | -55% |
| The Strangers: Chapter 1 | Lionsgate | $8,300,000 | $8,300,000 | ~2,800 | NEW |
| The Fall Guy | Universal Pictures | $8,100,000 | $62,500,000 | ~3,600 | -41% |
| Back to Black | Focus Features | $4,200,000 | $4,200,000 | ~2,000 | NEW |
| Challengers | MGM | $3,000,000 | $43,600,000 | ~2,200 | -31% |
| Tarot | Sony / Screen Gems | $1,900,000 | $15,300,000 | ~2,300 | -44% |
| Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire | Warner Bros. Pictures | $1,600,000 | $194,300,000 | ~2,000 | -39% |
| Unsung Hero | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company | $1,300,000 | $19,300,000 | ~1,700 | -49% |
| Civil War | A24 | $1,000,000 | $66,900,000 | ~1,600 | -44% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about the forecast, please contact us.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.