This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for as little as $6.25 per month. Paid access supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
This summer’s box office will be heating up over the next few weeks and throughout most of July, although the second frame of next month is poised to see a brief reprieve from tentpole releases as June’s crop gets a chance to establish their legs before late July’s heavy hitters.
With that in mind, Sony and Apple will counter-program the existing post-Fourth of July market with a star-driven vehicle aimed at adult audiences.
Fly Me to the Moon
Sony Pictures & Apple
July 12, 2024
Domestic Opening Forecast: $9 – 14 million
Key Tracking Factors:
- Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum will be the strengths here as their respective star powers hope to build on the appeal of theatrical releases such as The Fall Guy, The Lost City, and Ticket to Paradise.
- Midsummer, mid-profile releases have become more challenging to turn into commercial breakouts of late. Last year’s performance by the Jennifer Lawrence-led No Hard Feelings could be an optimistic barometer for Fly Me to the Moon.
- Cautiously speaking, period settings are also difficult to make appealing to modern and young audiences. The NASA-focused and rom-com hybrid plot will need to prove crowd-pleasing beyond opening weekend if Moon is to generate legs against the likes of Twisters and Deadpool & Wolverine.
- In general, Apple’s collaborative releases with major Hollywood studios have faced mixed results and growing pains in the company’s efforts to develop box office hits. Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon were big-budget productions met with fair results under the circumstances of their reception, while Argylle was impacted by poor reviews.
This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for as little as $6.25 per month. Paid access supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
as of 6/13/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; scroll to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 6/21/2024 | The Bikeriders | Focus Features | $8,500,000 | $13,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $22,900,000 | $40,000,000 | $31,000,000 |
| 6/21/2024 | The Exorcism | Vertical Entertainment | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 6/21/2024 | Janet Planet | A24 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 6/21/2024 | Kinds of Kindness (Limited) | Searchlight Pictures | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 6/28/2024 | Blue Lock The Movie: -Episode Nagi- | Sony / Crunchyroll | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 6/28/2024 | Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 | Warner Bros. Pictures | $11,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $13,500,000 | $35,600,000 | $67,300,000 | $48,500,000 |
| 6/28/2024 | A Quiet Place: Day One | Paramount Pictures | $42,000,000 | $51,000,000 | $46,000,000 | $119,800,000 | $169,000,000 | $138,800,000 |
| 6/28/2024 | Janet Planet (Wide Expansion) | A24 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/3/2024 | Despicable Me 4 | Universal Pictures / Illumination | $61,000,000 | $74,000,000 | $67,000,000 | $262,000,000 | $326,700,000 | $293,000,000 |
| 7/4/2024 | Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot | Angel Studios | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $24,000,000 |
| 7/5/2024 | MaXXXine | A24 | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $13,800,000 | $20,200,000 | $18,000,000 |
| 7/12/2024 | The Lion King (1994) (30th Anniversary Reissue) | Walt Disney Pictures | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/12/2024 | Touch | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/12/2024 | Fly Me to the Moon | Sony Pictures / Apple Original Films | $9,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $13,500,000 | $29,500,000 | $51,000,000 | $45,600,000 |
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