5-Week Box Office Forecasts & Tracking: THE ACCOUNTANT 2, STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SITH 20th Anniversary, UNTIL DAWN, and A24’s THE LEGEND OF OCHI

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

2025’s last pre-summer weekend (by movie season reckoning) is on deck in this week’s short-range update, and it could be a decently promising one by typical standards for the final frame of April.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The Accountant 2 has already earned solid trailer imprints across social channels and positive reviews from early critics’ screenings, standing at 84 percent fresh from 31 Rotten Tomatoes submissions.
  • Although late April releases aren’t typically known to become breakouts, the goodwill toward its 2016 predecessor, what’s expected to be a sturdy marketing lift from Amazon MGM, and a likely premium screen presence could bolster what’s already been a solid early marketing campaign with core male audiences excited about the return of Ben Affleck and Jon Bernthal.
  • Staying power will depend partly on how long Amazon keeps the film exclusive to the theatrical window. The studio and streaming giant notably sent Red One to Prime availability in the middle of its theatrical run after just 28 days, which could be a benchmark they follow here with theatrical competitors Thunderbolts* and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning following in May.
  • Adding to variables in forecasts, consumer behaviors among the target adult audience have certainly shifted in the nine years since the first film’s release, far from guaranteeing a growth in box office dollars. That said, it hasn’t hurt the John Wick franchise.
• Competing for partial PLF space that weekend will be Disney and Lucasfilm’s 20th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith. The previous re-issue of The Phantom Menace performed well, as many repertory titles have in recent years. As the most acclaimed of the prequels for many fans, Sith is expected to draw well in a special engagement wide release, though it could also lack some of the nostalgic kiddie appeal that helped Phantom.
• A24’s typical cohort of followers should drive business for The Legend of Ocho, a breakaway from the studio’s usually mature fare into the world of potentially kid-friendly fantasy themes. While a true wide release is expected at the moment, the studio is often quiet about confirming distribution strategies until very late in the marketing cycle. As such, forecasts could be somewhat volatile for now as they’re currently based on the assumption of a 2,000-plus location reach.
• Sony’s video game adaptation, Until Dawn, drew mixed social and teaser trends with initial launches, but a recent trailer has ignited renewed potential interest among the game’s core audience and potential horror fans. The genre has been oversaturating the big screen of late, and premium screens could be hard to come by on this weekend, but it’s a title worth watching in the weeks ahead.
• Aside from typical ebbs and flows in forecast modeling and pre-sale tracking, most films on the upcoming calendar remain within general ranges of expectations. The biggest release before May, A Minecraft Movie, continues to draw steady momentum in its long pre-sales cycle as a hybrid fan- and family-driven marquee release in early April when it will coincide with major market spring break windows.

5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 3/20/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.