This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Two releases slated for May 16 join this week’s public forecast, plus updates on other upcoming releases.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Final Destination: Bloodlines is generating strong social media buzz since the release of its initial teaser and more recent official trailer. The franchise was once a staple of the horror genre during the early 2000s and could be due for a nostalgic bump from millennials on top of appeal to younger horror fans. Opening one week before Memorial Day gives the pic a chance to enjoy a PLF presence on the first weekend, somewhat distanced from Marvel’s Thunderbolts* (in its third frame), and stretch its legs going into early summer if word of mouth is positive.
- Hurry Up Tomorrow is one of the more unique films to track currently with The Weeknd (Abel Tesfaye) and Jenna Ortega providing star appeal among young adult moviegoers. Tied to the former’s album release, there could be some notable fan turnout, but reaching beyond that base will be a stretch for the niche genre pic.
- Closer to the horizon, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners continues to track well in PLF pre-sales ahead of its Good Friday opening next week, and a robust 100 percent fresh score from 37 Rotten Tomatoes critics might bode well for final-week interest evolving into intent-to-see. The Easter holiday is expected to create some back-loading in demand among casual audiences as the original period horror film.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/10/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
4/18/2025 |
COLORFUL STAGE! The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/18/2025 |
The Shrouds (Platform) |
Sideshow & Janus Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/18/2025 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$33,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
$78,000,000 |
$120,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
2.76 |
4/18/2025 |
Sneaks |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/18/2025 |
The Wedding Banquet |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
The Accountant 2 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$17,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$41,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
2.65 |
4/25/2025 |
Cheech and Chong’s Last Movie |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
The Legend of Ochi |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,500,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
2.92 |
4/25/2025 |
On Swift Horses |
Sony Pictures Classics |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
The Shrouds (Expansion) |
Sideshow & Janus Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (20th Anniversary) |
Walt Disney Pictures / Lucasfilm |
$6,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,500,000 |
1.50 |
4/25/2025 |
Until Dawn |
Sony / Screen Gems |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
2.67 |
5/2/2025 |
The Surfer |
Lionsgate & Roadside Attractions |
$1,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$9,600,000 |
2.74 |
5/2/2025 |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$67,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
$76,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
$246,000,000 |
$219,000,000 |
2.88 |
5/4/2025 |
Monty Python and the Holy Grail (50th Anniversary 5/4/25 and 5/7/25) |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
5/9/2025 |
Clown in a Cornfield |
RLJ Entertainment / Shudder |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
5/9/2025 |
Fight or Flight |
Vertical Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,400,000 |
2.13 |
5/9/2025 |
Juliet & Romeo |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
2.50 |
5/9/2025 |
Shadow Force |
Lionsgate |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
2.00 |
5/13/2025 |
Show Me Your Glory |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
5/16/2025 |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$26,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$87,000,000 |
$76,000,000 |
2.45 |
5/16/2025 |
Hurry Up Tomorrow |
Lionsgate |
$2,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
2.14 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.