This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update will be brief as we wind down from CinemaCon and no major studio releases join the public forecast in the five-week window.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Amateur‘s final marketing window is driving healthy interest trends, and an IMAX release will further aid box office potential as an adult-driven counter-programmer to the blockbuster breakout of A Minecraft Movie.
- Drop, unfortunately, continues to show middling exhibitor pre-sale trends akin to recent horror and thriller titles that have crowded the market. That said, the genre does have its history of showing late-stage upticks at the eleventh hour and the Blumhouse brand will count for something among core audiences.
- The King of Kings has seen a robust pace of faith-based audience interest and exhibitor pre-sales as it’s shaping up to potentially become one of Angel Studios’ top performers in recent memory.
- Sinners pre-sales are fairly heavy on the PLF side, but forecasts remain volatile as the period genre film will likely be susceptible to eventual reviews and audience buzz.
- While The Accountant 2 models remain unchanged, there is growing optimism for some potential over-performance as Amazon MGM ramps up the ad campaign following strong critics reviews thus far.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/3/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
4/10/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 (Episodes 6-8) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$17,300,000 |
2.16 |
4/11/2025 |
The Amateur |
Disney / 20th Century Studios |
$12,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$13,500,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
2.96 |
4/11/2025 |
Drop |
Universal Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
2.67 |
4/11/2025 |
Gunslingers |
Lionsgate |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/11/2025 |
The King of Kings |
Angel Studios |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$62,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
4.36 |
4/11/2025 |
Warfare |
A24 |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
3.00 |
4/18/2025 |
COLORFUL STAGE! The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/18/2025 |
The Ritual |
XYZ Films |
n/a |
||||||
4/18/2025 |
The Shrouds (Platform) |
Sideshow & Janus Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/18/2025 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$30,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$33,000,000 |
$71,000,000 |
$110,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
2.58 |
4/18/2025 |
Sneaks |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
3.00 |
4/18/2025 |
The Wedding Banquet |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
The Accountant 2 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$17,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$41,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
2.65 |
4/25/2025 |
Cheech and Chong’s Last Movie |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
The Legend of Ochi |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,500,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
2.92 |
4/25/2025 |
On Swift Horses |
Sony Pictures Classics |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
The Shrouds (Expansion) |
Sideshow & Janus Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/25/2025 |
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (20th Anniversary) |
Walt Disney Pictures / Lucasfilm |
$6,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,500,000 |
1.50 |
4/25/2025 |
Until Dawn |
Sony / Screen Gems |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
2.67 |
5/2/2025 |
Shadow Force |
Lionsgate |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
2.00 |
5/2/2025 |
The Surfer |
Lionsgate & Roadside Attractions |
$1,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$9,600,000 |
2.74 |
5/2/2025 |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$67,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
$76,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
$246,000,000 |
$219,000,000 |
2.88 |
5/4/2025 |
Monty Python and the Holy Grail (50th Anniversary 5/4/25 and 5/7/25) |
Fathom Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
5/9/2025 |
Clown in a Cornfield |
RLJ Entertainment / Shudder |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
5/9/2025 |
Fight or Flight |
Vertical Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
5/9/2025 |
Juliet & Romeo |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.