5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE, TWISTERS and DESPICABLE ME 4 Updates, Early Projections for Shyamalan’s TRAP

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This week’s rundown offers a quick look at the ongoing prospects of the cumulative July market as it’ll be anchored by three tentpole releases following June’s own holdover strengths. We also offering up initial projections for M. Night Shyamalan’s latest original thriller, set for an August 2 release.

Of note, Sony will open Harold and the Purple Crayon as a counter-programmer to the Shyamalan release. While we currently provide initial tracking on that family-driven release to our clients, it will be included in these free reports beginning with next week’s update.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Despicable Me 4 (Wednesday, July 3) remains positioned as the marquee release of Fourth of July (Independence Day) weekend. Pre-sales are gaining momentum as release approaches, despite the shadow of Inside Out 2‘s blockbuster breakout which will undoubtedly remain a factor throughout summer. Still, our market samples for Illumination’s four-quel are trending nearly 58 percent ahead of Kung Fu Panda 4 at a similar point in the pre-release cycle, and 29 percent behind Minions: The Rise of Gru. We continue to anticipate a five-day opening haul north of $100 million domestically.
• Fly Me to the Moon (Friday, July 12) remains in a challenged position, as noted in our earlier tracking reports, as a period rom-com. We’re slightly drawing back projections at this time, though the film’s stars remains its biggest strengths with aspirations of capturing healthy walk-up business among adults.
• Twisters (Friday, July 19) continues to impress in our models following last week’s update, though some volatility naturally remains in a crowded summer market. Including early access shows, pre-sale models are trending 146 percent ahead of Nope and 60 percent less than Jurassic World Dominion at the same points before release.
• Deadpool & Wolverine (Friday, July 26) remains a juggernaut with pre-release buzz ramping up for Marvel’s biggest release in nearly two years. As highlighted in our in-depth analysis last week, pre-sales are robust and positioning the crossover sequel for record-breaking R-rated grosses. Early ticket traffic four weeks out is pacing 36 percent ahead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s previews at the same point in our samples, while also already 7 percent north of where Thor: Love & Thunder stood just two weeks from its release.
• Trap (Friday, August 2) is hoping to generate the kind of late-summer sleeper success often enjoyed by thrillers and horrors. Shyamalan’s name will bring out his core fan base, although that wasn’t quite enough to help Knock at the Cabin reach higher expectations last year. Still, early marketing and trailer reception for Trap have been healthier among young demographics than they were for that film, particularly among young women. That’s an integral audience for genre breakouts, so this could be well-timed between so many male-driven releases in July and August.

This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.