This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
After another up and down winter, the spring box office window will need a lift again this year. Can Warner Bros.’ latest video game adaptation deliver?
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Opening April 4, A Minecraft Movie is aiming to rally fans of the highly successful video game franchise as well as a broader family audience. That makes the measuring stick different from the likes of Five Nights at Freddy’s, and perhaps to some degree from Sonic the Hedgehog with the likes of Jason Momoa and Jack Black in live-action leading roles. Momoa adds a pedigree of appeal to women across various age groups, while Black is no stranger to anchoring family-focused hits like the Kung Fu Panda series, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, the Jumanji sequels, and many more.
- Pre-sales have only just begun as this report is being written, so it’s too early to determine anything based on those alone. What should be expected, most likely, is not a fan-rush of demand (ala a Marvel or massive tentpole movie), but rather a slow-burn pace. The film’s on-sale date is more distant from release day than typical comparison films, while the aforementioned family appeal during a wide open market and spring break season are likely to backload interest and demand.
- That being said, reactions to early trailers last year were mixed, though sentiment has slightly improved since with more recent clips and promotional material. This will be an important, but not necessarily make-or-break, trend to watch where the online portion of the fan base is concerned. In other words, young adult and older fans of the source game will be more critical of the film than casual audiences and families who tend not to be well represented on internet forums and comment sections.
- Snow White will be entering its third frame, and Minecraft faces no direct kiddie-friendly competition of significant scale until late May with Lilo & Stitch. As we’ve seen family movies enjoy long runways in recent times, even with perceived mixed reception, that positions Minecraft to do well in the long run provided word of mouth isn’t potently negative in the real world.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/28/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
3/7/2025 |
In the Lost Lands |
Vertical Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Night of the Zoopocalypse |
Viva Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Mickey 17 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$18,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$21,500,000 |
$46,500,000 |
$88,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
3.02 |
3/7/2025 |
Queen of the Ring |
Sumerian |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Rule Breakers |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$10,500,000 |
|
3/7/2025 |
The Senior |
Freestyle Releasing / Wayfarer Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Seven Veils |
XYZ Films / Variance |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/14/2025 |
Black Bag |
Focus Features |
$4,500,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
2.92 |
3/14/2025 |
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie |
Ketchup Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,700,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$10,800,000 |
3.60 |
3/14/2025 |
The Last Supper |
Pinnacle Peak |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
2.50 |
3/14/2025 |
Novocaine |
Paramount Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$32,600,000 |
3.62 |
3/14/2025 |
Opus |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$11,400,000 |
2.28 |
3/15/2025 |
MetOpera: Fidelio |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/19/2025 |
Hans Zimmer & Friends: Diamond in the Desert |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
The Alto Knights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
2.71 |
3/21/2025 |
Disney’s Snow White |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$52,000,000 |
$71,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$130,000,000 |
$209,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
2.77 |
3/21/2025 |
The Friend |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
Magazine Dreams |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
2.50 |
3/26/2025 |
Imagine Dragons: Live from the Hollywood Bowl |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/27/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 (Episodes 1-2) |
Fathom Events |
$9,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$22,800,000 |
$19,000,000 |
1.90 |
3/28/2025 |
The Ballad of Wallis Island |
Focus Features |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/28/2025 |
Death of a Unicorn |
A24 |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
2.75 |
3/28/2025 |
Sikandar |
Nadiadwala Grandson Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,750,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
1.33 |
3/28/2025 |
The Woman in the Yard |
Universal / Blumhouse |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
2.94 |
3/28/2025 |
A Working Man |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
3.67 |
4/3/2025 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 (Episodes 3-5) |
Fathom Events |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$18,700,000 |
$14,000,000 |
2.33 |
4/4/2025 |
Hell of a Summer |
Neon |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
The Luckiest Man in America |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
4/4/2025 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$55,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$139,000,000 |
$222,000,000 |
$186,000,000 |
3.05 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.