The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- One Battle After Another is currently the favorite to lead the weekend of September 26 thanks to Leonardo DiCaprio’s star presence, Paul Thomas Anderson’s cinephile standing, and a strong early trailer campaign that has heavily pushed an IMAX release. In what’s more of a quirky thriller than some of DiCaprio’s biggest career successes, this is likely more of a sleeper-leaning title with demographics leaning toward the 35-plus segment. Future marketing and buzz could elevate potential more.
- Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie will aim to win the mom-and-daughter crowd with a live-action and animation hybrid adaptation of the popular series. Audience reach is likely more narrow than the likes of Dog Man or The Wild Robot, but a lack of kid-friendly releases on this part of the calendar could be advantageous.
- The Strangers: Chapter 2 will appeal mostly to the core audience which drove Chapter 1 to an $11.8 million debut in May 2024. Opening one week after Him and three weeks after The Conjuring: Last Rites will keep the planned trilogy’s middle chapter mostly fan-driven.
- Closer to the home front, preliminary low-end targets have been set for both Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event (August 23 and August 24) as well as Disney’s theatrical release of Hamilton. Both have impressed in their own ways during initial pre-sale windows across exhibitor samples, but it remains to be seen how front-loaded they are as musical special engagements (and whether or not Netflix opts to report box office earnings in the case of Kpop).
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/14/25
(NOTE: Additional range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
8/21/2025 |
Black Swan (15th Anniversary in IMAX) |
Searchlight Pictures |
||||||
8/22/2025 |
Afterburn |
Falling Forward Films |
||||||
8/22/2025 |
Honey Don’t! |
Focus Features |
||||||
8/22/2025 |
Lurker |
Mubi |
||||||
8/22/2025 |
Ne Zha 2 (Re-Issue in English Language) |
A24 |
||||||
8/23/2025 |
Kpop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event |
Netflix |
$10,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
||||
8/29/2025 |
Caught Stealing |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
||
8/29/2025 |
Grand Prix of Europe |
Viva Pictures |
||||||
8/29/2025 |
Jaws (50th Anniversary Re-Issue) |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
||||
8/29/2025 |
The Roses |
Searchlight Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
||
8/29/2025 |
Run |
Falling Forward Films |
||||||
8/29/2025 |
The Toxic Avenger Unrated |
Cineverse / Iconic Events Releasing |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
||
9/5/2025 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$30,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$109,000,000 |
||
9/5/2025 |
Hamilton |
Disney |
$10,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
||||
9/5/2025 |
The Legend of Hei 2 |
GKIDS |
||||||
9/5/2025 |
Light of the World |
Salvation Poem Project |
||||||
9/5/2025 |
Twinless |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
9/12/2025 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$44,000,000 |
||
9/12/2025 |
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale |
Focus Features |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
||
9/12/2025 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
||
9/12/2025 |
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
9/12/2025 |
Toy Story (30th Anniversary) |
Disney |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,300,000 |
$7,500,000 |
||
9/18/2025 |
Sight & Sound Presents: NOAH – Live! |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
Apollo 13 (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey |
Sony Pictures |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
Him |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
The Senior |
Angel Studios |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
Waltzing With Brando |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
The Strangers: Chapter 2 |
Lionsgate |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.