This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
It’s been awhile since we could say this is a “calm before the storm” weekend, but it will have its own level of intrigue with two new releases competing against last week’s breakout opener in a tight race for the top three spots at the weekend box office.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $15 — 20 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $20 million+
Predator: Badlands
BOT Domestic 2nd Weekend Forecast Range: $15 — 19 million
The Running Man (2025)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $14 — 19 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $20 million+
Keeper
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 3.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Predator: Badlands didn’t appear to have much chance at repeating in the #1 position until it crushed all reasonable tracking and pre-sales expectations with a $40 million debut last weekend. The buzzy sci-fi action/adventure will lose a big portion of its premium screen footprint due to new release contractual obligations (something the industry needs to fix sooner rather than later), but don’t discount the impact of stellar word of mouth among its audience so far (it’s at 95 percent on the Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter). Badlands may also retain select showtimes in some premium formats depending on exhibitor discretion.
- Now You See Me: Now You Don’t has the slight edge in weekend pre-sales among openers, although that’s par for the course for a second sequel in a fairly modern franchise. With women over 35 expected to have a slight lead in audience makeup, expectations are volatile right now since most of that moviegoing crowd in the walk-up and late-sales segments are likely sitting this weekend out in advance of next week’s Wicked: For Good — tracking to open among the biggest musicals in history (more updates on that later this week).
- Bullish models position NYSM3 close to $20 million+ this weekend, but we’re erring on the side of caution given the nine-year gap between sequels and market competition. Rather, it’s probably safer to expect solid legs with Thanksgiving and the pre-Christmas corridor coming up.
- Conversely, The Running Man has continued to stall in late-stage pre-sale momentum, resulting in declining expectations this weekend even when considering our previous ranges were on the conservative-to-modest end. Edgar Wright and Stephen King fans are expected to drive initial business, and a late Thursday evening start will help multiples throughout the weekend, but overall demographic tracking has lagged behind the likes of Furiosa, Ballerina, and Predator: Badlands itself — that latter of which courts a very similar older male demographic.
- Still, as with NYSM3, healthy legs could be in Running Man‘s future if reception is positive as it will be one of the marquee male-driven films in theaters during the Wicked and Zootopia sequels’ oncoming box office rampage through the end of the month and into December. That being said, even as a high-concept action-comedy release, movies set in a dystopian future could be a hard sell for casual audiences in the current economic and global climate.
- On the other side of the chart, Osgood Perkins’s Keeper and a limited re-release of Wicked should vie for positions in the top ten this weekend.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $70.4 million. That would be 7 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($65.9 million, led by Red One‘s $32.1 million debut) and 21 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($89.6 million, led by Ford v Ferrari‘s $31.5 million opening).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 16 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Predator: Badlands |
20th Century Studios |
$17,900,000 |
-55% |
$70,600,000 |
~3,725 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$16,700,000 |
NEW |
$16,700,000 |
~3,300 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount |
$16,700,000 |
NEW |
$16,700,000 |
~3,400 |
Regretting You |
Paramount |
$4,500,000 |
-32% |
$45,800,000 |
~2,800 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal |
$2,800,000 |
-46% |
$74,500,000 |
~2,600 |
Sarah’s Oil |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$2,600,000 |
-39% |
$8,500,000 |
~2,410 |
Bugonia |
Focus |
$2,500,000 |
-27% |
$16,600,000 |
~2,000 |
Keeper |
NEON |
$2,500,000 |
NEW |
$2,500,000 |
~2,000 |
Nuremberg |
Sony Pictures Classics |
$2,400,000 |
-38% |
$8,000,000 |
~1,802 |
Wicked (2025 Re-Issue) |
Universal |
$1,800,000 |
NEW |
$1,800,000 |
~1,500 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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