The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Brief update this week as we continue refining outlooks for late March and April releases, notably Project Hail Mary and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which will be featured in coming updates next month.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Send Help and Iron Lung are both meeting/exceeding expectations in early box office preview results, setting the stage for a weekend that could potentially see both over-perform in a much needed rebound after last week’s winter storm-depressed frame.
- The Super Bowl is just over one week away now, meaning one more stretch of modest openers before 2026 gets its first significant weekend of new release business.
- To that end, Wuthering Heights continues to roll merrily along in the pre-sales window. Early social media reviews are largely positive, highlighting the chemistry between Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, as well as the film’s music and cinematography. The full embargo drops on February 9. Forecasts are still fluid as there could be some divisive reactions toward the film, but look for Saturday (Valentine’s) to be its top-grossing day on opening weekend.
- Meanwhile, GOAT also continues to trend well in pre-release models. Pre-sales won’t tell the full tale for an original animated film yet, but we continue to expect a respectable counter-programmer over the long Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend.
- Forecasts remain generally steady for the remainder of February and early March releases for now, though we’ll continue monitoring outlooks and assess potential movement that may or may not come from Super Bowl promotion.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/29/26
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
1/30/2026 |
Iron Lung |
Centurion |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
|
1/30/2026 |
Melania |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,600,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
|
1/30/2026 |
Send Help |
Disney |
$16,500,000 |
$21,500,000 |
$18,500,000 |
$31,000,000 |
$52,000,000 |
$57,000,000 |
|
1/30/2026 |
Shelter |
Black Bear |
$4,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$5,600,000 |
$9,100,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$14,200,000 |
|
2/6/2026 |
Solo Mio |
Angel Studios |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$22,500,000 |
$15,700,000 |
|
2/6/2026 |
The Strangers: Chapter 3 |
Lionsgate |
$4,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
|
2/6/2026 |
Stray Kids: The dominATE Experience |
Bleecker Street |
$1,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
|
2/13/2026 |
Cold Storage |
Samuel Goldwyn Films |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$9,100,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Crime 101 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$13,900,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
2/13/2026 |
GOAT |
Sony Pictures |
$14,500,000 |
$20,500,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$20,400,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$85,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$3,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$13,800,000 |
2/13/2026 |
Wuthering Heights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$45,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$55,400,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
$123,800,000 |
$105,000,000 |
2/20/2026 |
How to Make a Killing |
A24 |
$2,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
|
2/20/2026 |
I Can Only Imagine 2 |
Lionsgate |
$13,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
|
2/20/2026 |
Pillion (Wide Expansion) |
A24 |
|||||||
2/20/2026 |
Psycho Killer |
Disney |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
|
2/27/2026 |
EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (Wide Release) |
Universal Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
|
2/27/2026 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount Pictures |
$28,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$82,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
|
3/6/2026 |
The Bride! |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$37,500,000 |
$59,000,000 |
|||
3/6/2026 |
Hoppers |
Disney |
$18,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$72,000,000 |
$115,000,000 |
|||
3/13/2026 |
The Breadwinner |
Sony Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$41,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
|||
3/13/2026 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$44,000,000 |
|||
3/13/2026 |
Undertone |
A24 |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.