The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update will be quick and free to all subscribers as we enter the 4th of July frame with only a few major wide releases on the short-range calendar.
Of note, next week’s 5-week and weekend forecasts may be delayed or shortened as I’ll be taking some quick time off from computer screens between the holiday and the busy month ahead.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Although post-July 4th trends could pick up to some extent, Moana is pacing behind its expected pathing at this point before release. We remain somewhat optimistic that it could have a solid runway through summer as one of the last family- and female-driven tentpoles opening before the fall, but opening weekend metrics are looking more challenging coming on the heels of Toy Story 5‘s blockbuster success and the kid-friendly business of Minions & Monsters.
- Full analysis and forecast charts available on Substack
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.