This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Our penultimate weekend forecast of the year breaks down final forecasts for James Cameron’s third Avatar film and several other key releases. Across the board, we can expect strong multiples from this weekend’s performances as the final weekend of Christmas shopping is likely to dent moviegoing, contributing to backloaded lifetime runs for most of the new additions.
Avatar: Fire and Ash
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $85 — 105 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $90 million+
The Housemaid
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $17 — 24 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $15 million+
David
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $18 — 28 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: n/a
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $13 — 20.5 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $16 million+
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As of Wednesday morning, Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s critical reception (71 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) is in the same ballpark as its predecessor, The Way of Water (76 percent fresh). Pre-sale pacing remains steady with recent trends, which is to say they are noticeably distant from Water at the same point even when estimating average ticket price increases over the last three years.
- As always, Fire and Ash‘s broader story remains its eventual domestic multiplier and international box office share as it does not have the same opening weekend urgency as other fan-driven franchises and benefits from moviegoer preference toward premium formats (which Fire has locked up for weeks to come).
- The Housemaid continues to show signs of a sleeper hit as it remains in a tight race with David for the runner-up position. The latter’s numerous caveats as part of Angel Studios’ strategy, including BOGOs and “kids go free” promotional offers, keep it in volatile territory to project, but its timely calendar spot positions it to be one of the studio’s most successful releases to date.
- SpongeBob will draw fans this weekend but the main play is all about longevity. Even with Zootopia 2 still expected to perform well through the holiday corridor, SpongeBob still won’t face much more competition for kids and parents in chase weeks.
- Marty Supreme will receive a platform release this weekend ahead of next week’s wide break for Christmas. Pre-sale tracking is trending ahead of The Brutalist, which similarly opened in select markets last December.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $179 million+. That would be 28 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($139.9 million, led by Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s $60.1 million and Mufasa‘s $35.4 million debuts) and 26 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($243.2 million, led by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker‘s $177.4 million opening).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 21 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
Disney (20th) |
$93,200,000 |
NEW |
$93,200,000 |
~3,800 |
The Housemaid |
Lionsgate |
$20,800,000 |
NEW |
$20,800,000 |
~3,100 |
David |
Angel Studios |
$20,000,000 |
NEW |
$20,000,000 |
~3,500 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$17,100,000 |
-34% |
$285,900,000 |
~3,500 |
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants |
Paramount |
$15,000,000 |
NEW |
$15,000,000 |
~3,500 |
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 |
Universal |
$6,700,000 |
-65% |
$106,700,000 |
~2,900 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal |
$4,000,000 |
-53% |
$319,700,000 |
~2,900 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$1,300,000 |
-45% |
$61,700,000 |
~1,800 |
Ella McCay |
Disney (20th) |
$1,000,000 |
-50% |
$3,900,000 |
~2,500 |
Marty Supreme |
A24 |
$520,000 |
NEW |
$520,000 |
6 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.