This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The Devil Wears Prada 2
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $70 — 95 million
Studio Tracking: $70 million+
Hokum
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $4.5 — 7.5 million
Animal Farm
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 4 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 remains on track for a strong debut, contributing in a robust one-two punch for summer movie season’s launch after Michael‘s $97.2 million domestic opening last weekend. The legacy sequel receives a footprint of more than 1,000 premium format theaters this weekend and will additionally hope to benefit from Mother’s Day landing in its second frame.
- Comps remain weighted toward female-driven, girls’ night out tentpoles such as the Wicked films and It Ends With Us. We expect New York and Los Angeles to over-index relative to many other markets, but walk-up potential shouldn’t be totally ruled out.
- Critics’ reviews are encouraging overall with a 75 percent Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
- As noted in previous reports, the ensemble cast could be a driver for some casual audience appeal, particularly the return of Meryl Streep whose big screen presence has been more selective in recent years.
- Michael will retain IMAX screens and should ride strong fan word of mouth (97 percent Verified Hot on RT’s Popcornmeter) in its sophomore frame. As it was also female-driven in its debut, some audience cannibalization is possible against Prada 2,. Still, both films may prove to co-exist in the long run without more direct competition through most of May.
- On the counter-programming front, NEON’s Hokum is showing early signals of a solid performance with the horror community and a 90 percent fresh critics’ score driving momentum.
- Additionally, Animal Farm will cater to Angel members and families; Deep Water will hope to win over fans of shark-related creature features; and, That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime… will court anime fans of that particular IP.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $163 million+. That would be 16 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($141.0 million, led by Thunderbolts*’ $74.3 million debut) and 16 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($193.9 million, led by Avengers: Endgame‘s $147.4 million).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 3 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney (20th) |
$84,300,000 |
NEW |
$84,300,000 |
~4,000 |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
$42,100,000 |
-57% |
$170,900,000 |
~3,955 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal |
$13,000,000 |
-37% |
$404,400,000 |
~3,500 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM |
$8,900,000 |
-31% |
$318,200,000 |
~3,200 |
Hokum |
NEON |
$5,700,000 |
NEW |
$5,700,000 |
~1,800 |
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$2,700,000 |
-51% |
$28,300,000 |
~2,600 |
Animal Farm |
Angel Studios |
$2,400,000 |
NEW |
$2,400,000 |
~2,500 |
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Tears of the Azure Sea |
Sony (Crunchyroll) |
$1,800,000 |
NEW |
$1,800,000 |
~800 |
Hoppers |
Disney (Pixar) |
$1,400,000 |
-27% |
$166,100,000 |
~1,800 |
Deep Water |
Magenta Light Studios |
$1,300,000 |
NEW |
$1,300,000 |
~2,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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