This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Final Destination: Bloodlines
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $36– 42.5 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $35 million+
Hurry Up Tomorrow
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 – 6.5 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: n/a
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Final Destination: Bloodlines continues to track at, and in some cases above, the high end of our preliminary models last month on the back of strong reviews (95 percent fresh from 76 Rotten Tomatoes critics) and a healthy pre-sale presence, partly dominated by IMAX and premium format demand.
- Thursday’s domestic previews, beginning at 3pm, are currently tracking to earn around around $4 million-plus.
- In addition to early reception, anticipation is centered around Tony Todd’s final appearance in the series, filmed before his passing last year.
- Demographic sample tracking from multiple sources leans slightly older than Saw X and Evil Dead Rise.
- With Memorial Day weekend in play next week, some word-of-mouth-driven backloading from non-diehard fans can reasonably be baked into the film’s runway.
- As an R-rated, gore-driven horror sequel, walk-up demand could be somewhat capped relative to mainstream-friendly pics like A Quiet Place: Day One and last month’s breakout Sinners. Out of an abundance of caution to manage expectations, we’re shifting the pinpoint toward the low end of the final forecast range despite some outlying models indicating a performance above the current range is on the table.
- That said, there’s little doubt this sequel is set to mark a new franchise record. 2009’s The Final Destination holds the top opening across the previous five films with $27.4 million.
- On the specialty front, Hurry Up Tomorrow has peaked early on in the pre-sale cycle thanks to The Weeknd’s fan demand driving preview shows. Walk-up business is expected to be limited this weekend, despite the artist and co-star Jenna Ortega’s popularity.
- Holdover-wise, Thunderbolts* will be hit more by the loss IMAX and premium screens to Bloodlines, sharpening the dollar decline at the box office more than true attendance this weekend. Conversely, Sinners faces its first genre-direct source of competition, but it should withstand a lot of that crossover this deep into its run.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 2 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($91.2 million, led by IF‘s $33.7 million opening) and 36 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($139.9 million, led by John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum‘s $56.8 million debut).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 18 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Final Destination: Bloodlines |
Warner Bros. |
$37,300,000 |
NEW |
$37,300,000 |
~3,400 |
Thunderbolts* |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$17,400,000 |
-46% |
$156,100,000 |
~4,300 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. |
$16,400,000 |
-26% |
$242,400,000 |
~3,400 |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. |
$5,800,000 |
-24% |
$416,500,000 |
~3,200 |
Hurry Up Tomorrow |
Lionsgate |
$5,200,000 |
NEW |
~2,000 |
|
The Accountant 2 |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$4,400,000 |
-34% |
$58,600,000 |
~2,800 |
Clown in a Cornfield |
RLJ Entertainment / Shudder |
$1,200,000 |
-67% |
$6,000,000 |
~2,277 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.