This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The last of this July’s “big three” arrives in cinemas this weekend with the 37th chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and the 3rd of 2025.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $125.1 — 145 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$100 — 110 million+
Superman
3rd Domestic Weekend BOT Range: $22.5 — 26 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps has been tracking around a $125 million-plus domestic debut in our recent models, with upside toward a higher figure based on the expectation of strong reviews and some degree of four-quadrant appeal.
- Opening weekend pre-sales are pacing ahead of all 2025 releases in our sample exhibition markets, topping Superman, Lilo & Stitch, and A Minecraft Movie. (Note: the latter two films, especially Minecraft, enjoyed robust walk-up and family-driven business that offset the more fan-driven pre-buying habits typical of comic book films.)
- Reviews have lived up to buzz as the film boasts an 85 percent fresh score from 136 Rotten Tomatoes critics entering Wednesday.
- Thursday previews remain on course for a likely haul of at least $25 million. That would top Superman‘s $19.6 million ($22.5 million including Tuesday Early Access) as the highest of the year and best since Disney and Marvel’s own Deadpool & Wolverine ($38.5 million) last July.
- Demographically, First Steps is male-driven (no surprise), but skewing more favorably toward those under age 35 than Superman, Thunderbolts*, and Captain America: Brave New World.
- As noted in earlier forecasts, while Marvel films have settled into a fairly predictable core audience after multiple under-cooked films and streaming series in the post-Avengers: Endgame era, the brand remains sturdy when the right film comes along. Anticipation for Marvel’s First Family to join the MCU after two decades, a strong ensemble cast led by Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Joseph Quinn, and crowd-pleasing storytelling could help this film rediscover some of the IP’s prior draw among families.
- Daily forecast breakdowns are in the chart below.
- One factor to weigh in First Steps‘ reach beyond the core Marvel audience will be the aforementioned Superman. DC Studios’ inaugural film under James Gunn has displayed very healthy staying power through its first week-and-a-half thanks to strong word of mouth.
- That pic will see a sizable drop-off in grosses due to loss of IMAX and other premium screens, as well as the obvious demographic cannibalism with a new Marvel comic book film opening, but we expect a fairly quick rebound in the days and weeks ahead as both films aim to coexist during the dog days of summer with mostly only counter-programmers remaining on the immediate slate.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 31 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($283.1 million), led by Deadpool & Wolverine‘s record R-rated debut of $211.4 million, and 26 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($155.6 million), led by The Lion King remake’s $76.6 million second frame and the debut of Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood ($41.1 million).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 27 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
The Fantastic Four: First Steps |
Disney / Marvel |
$136,000,000 |
NEW |
$136,000,000 |
~4,100 |
Thu previews |
$25,500,000 |
||||
Fri |
$37,332,000 |
||||
Sat |
$39,572,000 |
||||
Sun |
$33,596,000 |
||||
Superman (2025) |
Warner Bros. |
$23,500,000 |
-60% |
$287,600,000 |
~4,200 |
Jurassic World Rebirth |
Universal |
$13,600,000 |
-43% |
$302,300,000 |
~3,400 |
F1: The Movie |
Warner Bros. / Apple Studios |
$5,600,000 |
-43% |
$164,700,000 |
~2,100 |
I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025) |
Sony |
$5,300,000 |
-57% |
$24,000,000 |
~3,206 |
Smurfs |
Paramount |
$5,200,000 |
-53% |
$21,500,000 |
~3,504 |
How to Train Your Dragon (2025) |
Universal |
$3,500,000 |
-35% |
$257,900,000 |
~2,400 |
Eddington |
A24 |
$1,400,000 |
-67% |
$7,000,000 |
~2,111 |
Lilo & Stitch (2025) |
Disney |
$1,100,000 |
-31% |
$420,500,000 |
~1,200 |
Elio |
Disney / Pixar |
$1,000,000 |
-52% |
$71,300,000 |
~1,100 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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