This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
We’re back after a week off for CinemaCon.
Stay tuned for future announcements regarding the timing and structure of our forecasts going forward, but for this week, it’s business as usual.
Michael
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $74 — 95 million
Studio Tracking: $65 million+
Over Your Dead Body
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $1 — 2.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Summer movie season gets an early start this weekend (ala 2011 when Fast Five preceded Thor and, of course, 2018 and 2019’s Avengers epics with late April bows) as Lionsgate releases the long-awaited Michael biopic following production interruptions and release delays.
- Pre-sales remain robust as the film continues along our previously projected pathing for one of the best biopic debuts of all time, if not *the* best.
- In the musical realm, topping Straight Outta Compton ($60.2 million) will achieve this feat, while the overall biopic benchmark belongs to Oppenheimer ($82.5 million). 2026’s best opening to date is Project Hail Mary ($80.5 million), so Michael has a few notable achievements in its sights, not to mention potentially becoming Lionsgate’s best debut outside the Hunger Games and Twilight franchises.
- Drilling down on the metrics, Michael is tracking strongest among women in the 35-plus age bracket, the precise demographic that helped turn the Wicked films and 2021’s Elvis into box office hits of varying degrees. This is also a signal for caution in extrapolating weekend business as walk-ups, particularly in Black communities, will be important toward reaching forecast targets.
- Jackson has no shortage of fans years after his iconic career and untimely passing in 2009, but his lifestyle also left behind its share of detractors and controversy. Without commenting or opining, this is objectively an unavoidable factor to weigh in the film’s widespread appeal and could drive a degree of front-loaded box office performance not typically seen from biopics and non-franchise films.
- With IMAX and a host of premium format screens in its arsenal, average ticket prices will boost overall box office once again as key audiences opt to see the musically-driven tentpole in the best formats available to them.
- Weekend business momentum will come down to word of mouth and whether or not this turns into a critic-proof, crowd-pleasing film. Reviews stand at just 36 percent fresh from 120 Rotten Tomatoes submissions.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $138 million+. That would be 2 percent below the same weekend in 2025 ($140.96 million, led by Sinners‘ $45.7 million sophomore frame) and 65 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($396.5 million, led by Avengers: Endgame‘s $357.1 still-standing, all-time record start).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 26 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
$83,700,000 |
NEW |
$83,700,000 |
~3,900 |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal |
$22,000,000 |
-40% |
$386,600,000 |
~4,000 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM |
$15,300,000 |
-25% |
$307,800,000 |
~3,600 |
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$6,500,000 |
-52% |
$24,600,000 |
~3,304 |
The Drama |
A24 |
$2,900,000 |
-40% |
$45,000,000 |
~2,100 |
Hoppers |
Disney (Pixar) |
$2,500,000 |
-18% |
$164,800,000 |
~2,200 |
You, Me & Tuscany |
Universal |
$2,000,000 |
-49% |
$18,100,000 |
~2,800 |
Over Your Dead Body |
IFC Films |
$1,500,000 |
NEW |
$1,500,000 |
~2,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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