This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Easter weekend has been known to deliver some good box office news in the past, and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners hopes to join that chorus of theatrical springtime successes.
Incidentally, the vampire genre has been ripe for a comeback (as evidenced by Robert Eggers’ winter hit, Nosferatu), a category where non-Twilight and non-sequel openers are represented by Van Helsing ($51.8 million), Hotel Transylvania ($42.5 million), Morbius ($39 million), and Interview with a Vampire ($36.4 million).
Where will Sinners land among that group?
Sinners
Warner Bros.
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$35 – 40 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $43 – 51 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Sinners is living up to our earlier tracking models and showing potential to crack slightly above the more bullish ceilings at the time. PLF demand remains strong, and the film’s core audience continues leaning toward men over 35, but walk-up potential is notable with Coogler and star Michael B. Jordan’s appeal, the history of Black communities to under-track in both audience sampling and pre-sales, and the Easter weekend timing which will see some off work and school for Good Friday.
- Conversely, the holiday also means Saturday bumps for Sinners and most holdovers will be muted relative to normal expectations. Easter Sunday will also depress attendance across the board, but not to the extreme measures of Christmas Eve or Super Bowl Sunday.
- On the cautionary side for Sinners, the R rating will keep out younger genre fans, putting a little more emphasis on the need for the film’s “elevated horror” appeal and current 99 percent fresh Rotten Tomatoes score to attract not just the core audience but some casual viewers as well.
- On the chase weekend front, A Minecraft Movie remains the dominant play for families and young teen fans. It will cede a fair share of its PLF footprint to Sinners, so the average ticket price (and, by extension, box office dollars) will see sharper declines than actual attendance this weekend as it will also benefit from the holiday window coinciding with the final spring break windows around the country.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 113 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($61 million, led by Civil War‘s $11.2 million sophomore weekend) and 37 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($95.3 million, led by The Curse of La Llorona‘s $26.3 million debut).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 20 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
A Minecraft Movie |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$49,000,000 |
-38% |
$352,000,000 |
~4,000 |
Sinners |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$45,000,000 |
NEW |
$45,000,000 |
~3,308 |
The King of Kings |
Angel Studios |
$13,800,000 |
-29% |
$41,600,000 |
~3,200 |
The Amateur |
20th Century Studios |
$6,800,000 |
-54% |
$26,300,000 |
~3,400 |
Warfare |
A24 |
$4,300,000 |
-48% |
$16,100,000 |
~2,670 |
Drop |
Universal Pictures |
$3,400,000 |
-54% |
$13,400,000 |
~3,085 |
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 |
Fathom Entertainment |
$2,700,000 |
-55% |
$11,800,000 |
~2,300 |
Snow White |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$1,900,000 |
-34% |
$85,100,000 |
~2,200 |
A Working Man |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$1,700,000 |
-43% |
$36,300,000 |
~2,200 |
Pride & Prejudice (20th Anniversary) |
Focus Features |
$1,500,000 |
NEW |
TBD |
TBD |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.