This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
BOT Domestic 5-Day Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $170 — 210 million ($119 — 150 million Fri-Sun)
The Drama
BOT Domestic 3rd Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 12 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Despite mixed reviews (44 percent fresh from critics on Rotten Tomatoes), Mario Galaxy is again showing off its broad appeal to audiences — especially families. Our final tracking models remain as encouraging and somewhat volatile as they were before, but with slightly more upside to consider as recent cameo revelations (which we won’t spoil here) began driving a small surge in pre-sales last week. In general, the over-performing market here in early 2026 also weighs into growing forecasts.
- The counterpoint to upticks in tracking is that, while average ticket prices are significantly higher than they were for the first Mario film three years ago, sequels naturally tend to be more front-loaded in pre-sales and at the box office in many cases. We’ll see to what extent, if at all, that plays out with actual performance now that the film is opening.
- As mentioned in earlier reports, The Drama will aim for a very different audience as social media buzz propels the Zendaya- and Robert Pattinson-led drama/rom-com. The star power and A24’s inherent fan base lend themselves to their own brand of established audience in pre-release tracking, but the holiday frame could help it overperform if word of mouth around the mysterious narrative is positive. Critics stand at 81 percent fresh.
- Meanwhile, look for Project Hail Mary to continue winning over moviegoers in its third frame even with the loss of IMAX screens and their higher ticket prices. Synergy with the real-world launch of the Artemis II moon mission won’t hurt, either.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $197 million+. That would be almost 1 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($196.9 million, led by A Minecraft Movie‘s $162.8 million debut) and 43 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($137.9 million, led by Shazam!‘s $53.5 million start).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 5 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie |
Universal |
$130,300,000 |
NEW |
$188,100,000 |
4,252 |
Project Hail Mary |
Amazon MGM |
$37,000,000 |
-32% |
$224,800,000 |
~4,000 |
The Drama |
A24 |
$9,500,000 |
NEW |
$9,500,000 |
~2,800 |
Hoppers |
Disney (Pixar) |
$7,500,000 |
-38% |
$150,000,000 |
~3,300 |
They Will Kill You |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$2,600,000 |
-48% |
$9,700,000 |
~2,778 |
A Great Awakening |
Roadside Attractions |
$2,500,000 |
NEW |
$2,500,000 |
~1,200 |
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come |
Disney (Searchlight) |
$2,100,000 |
-49% |
$19,900,000 |
~2,700 |
Dhurandhar: The Revenge |
Moviegoers Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
-57% |
$26,300,000 |
~800 |
Reminders of Him |
Universal |
$1,900,000 |
-60% |
$44,800,000 |
~2,000 |
Scream 7 |
Paramount |
$1,700,000 |
-35% |
$121,500,000 |
~2,200 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.