5-Week Box Office Tracking: LILO & STITCH ($120M+ 4-Day), MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING ($75M+) and THE LAST RODEO ($8M+) Building Toward the Strongest Memorial Day Set Since 2013

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Summer box office is around the corner, and our tracking for the week takes a peak at current forecasts for what may be one of the most important Memorial Day weekends for the industry in quite some time. But first, some context…

Despite last year’s tepid holiday performance ($132.2 million 4-day for all films combined), the frame has delivered its share of blockbusters over time, even as recently as 2023’s The Little Mermaid and 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick. Still, it’s been awhile since *multiple* tentpoles counter-programmed in a big way over the lucrative frame which “officially” kicks off summer for many (especially kids coming out of the school year).

With a trio of films courting a variety of moviegoers, 2025’s Memorial Weekend is currently tracking to potentially hit a $200 million 4-day haul. Again, that’s *just* from the main releases alone.

Our more bullish tracking models indicate that could climb higher, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves quite yet. This feat hasn’t happened since 2013’s Fast & Furious 6 ($117 million 4-day), The Hangover Part III ($62.1 million 4-day-plus-Thursday), and Epic ($42.8 million 4-day) tallied a massive holiday record of $221.9 million amongst themselves through Memorial Monday, part of what still stands as the highest grossing Memorial Day weekend in box office history — a whopping $314.2 million 4-day from all films, back when the holdover market was ludicrously strong and IP rich with the likes of Star Trek Into Darkness ($47.2 million second weekend), Iron Man 3 ($24.7 million fourth weekend), and The Great Gatsby ($17 million third weekend).

In all, 16 Memorial 4-days (all since 2002) have totaled at least $200 million from the entire market, but only 2007 ($255.6 million), 2011 ($276.9 million), and standard-bearer 2013 have crossed the $250 million threshold.

Holdovers Final Destination: Bloodlines and Thunderbolts* will need to play a major role as well if coming near any of the above benchmarks is going to be feasible, but Memorial Day 2025 is nonetheless shaping up to be a very significant one for moviegoing.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Lilo & Stitch‘s brand awareness is among the strongest of any Disney IP over the last few decades, with Stitch arguably serving as one of the studio’s primary mascots for young millennials, Gen Z and Alpha who have grown up with the 2002 animated film (among the studio’s last to be traditionally animated and successful at the box office). The live-action remake’s intro was one of the viral sensations of this year’s Super Bowl ads, followed swiftly by strong social media reactions and trailer imprints for the first teaser. As the first major family tentpole of the season, landing far enough in the wake of April’s Minecraft Movie, and minimal competition for families with young girls through the summer months, the pieces are in place for a return to Disney’s live-action blockbuster form.
• Going after the adult crowd, particularly men over 35, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning will leverage its marketing position as an assumed (but not actually confirmed) franchise finale with the world’s most reliable movie star — Tom Cruise — having already been pitching the film in earnest for months dating back to last summer’s buzzy Olympic handoff from Paris to Los Angeles. While 2023’s Dead Reckoning encountered diminishing returns in a noticeable way for the first time in nearly two decades, much of that erosion can be attributed to its unfortunate positioning against Barbie and Oppenheimer and the quick loss of premium screens (which have been a boon to Mission‘s success since 2011’s Ghost Protocol) that ensued. Final Reckoning aims to restore some of the brand and Cruise’s stalwart drawing power with less direct competition ahead in the early summer weeks this time, but it’s also fair to consider that much of its target audience has become more selective about going to movie theater’s since the series’ box office peak with Fallout in 2018.
• Angel Studios continues to strengthen its grassroots reputation with one consistent performer after another, and The Last Rodeo is already showing signs of potential to capture some of the “Yellowstone” vibes among midwestern and southerners, especially those in the values- and faith-based core demographics. Neal McDonough previously led Homestead and The Shift for the studio, and a holiday opening here should help drive potential to build upon those titles’ results even more.
• Not to be overlooked, projections for Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith’s re-release next week have skyrocketed in the wake of stronger-than-modeled pre-sale demand across exhibitor samples this week. While the six-day engagement is running into capacity and screen limitations (PLF is mostly dominated by The Accountant 2 and Sinners next weekend), it’s generating strong appeal from both Gen Z and millennials with performance metrics far ahead of last year’s Phantom Menace re-issue.

5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/17/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)