The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The biggest update of the week is arguably in the camp of Sony and Crunchyroll’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle, which broke anime pre-sales records for multiple exhibitors and Fandango when launching last week.
- While sharp front-loading is still expected for the fan-driven genre and franchise, it’s clear that the audience base has continued to expand since previous theatrical installments. We’ll continue to monitor momentum in the weeks ahead as the first part of the trilogy continues to do excellent business around the world having already exceeded $200 million.
- Though very early in the sales cycle for a genre known to pop close to release and among walk-ups, The Conjuring: Last Rites is living up to prior forecasts with exhibitor sample pre-sales registering in line, and ahead in some cases, of The Nun II and 28 Years Later.
- Similarly, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale is enjoying a literal “finale factor” early in its sales cycle as fans of the franchise are driving an encouraging pace relative to where A New Era was at the same point in our exhibitor sample markets back in 2022.
- Joining the public forecast this week:
- Avatar: The Way of Water will receive its re-release with IMAX and 3D auditoriums in tow on October 3, mimicking the strategy Disney, 20th Century Studios, and James Cameron employed with the 2022 re-issue of the original Avatar a few months before Way of Water‘s debut. Aimed to drum up buzz for this December’s Avatar: Fire and Ash, the franchise’s loyal fans will likely come out for Water‘s return to cinemas.
- Countering on the same weekend, A24 and Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine will hope to leverage Dwayne Johnson’s dramatic turn as Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) legend Mark Kerr. Combined with potential award season play and Emily Blunt’s co-starring position, this may be an adult-driven sleeper to keep an eye on.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/21/25
(NOTE: Additional range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
8/29/2025 |
Caught Stealing |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
8/29/2025 |
Jaws (50th Anniversary Re-Issue) |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
|||
8/29/2025 |
The Roses |
Searchlight Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
8/29/2025 |
Run |
Falling Forward Films |
||||||
8/29/2025 |
The Toxic Avenger Unrated |
Cineverse / Iconic Events Releasing |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$5,400,000 |
9/5/2025 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$32,000,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$72,500,000 |
$112,000,000 |
$84,500,000 |
9/5/2025 |
Hamilton |
Disney |
$10,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
||||
9/5/2025 |
The Legend of Hei 2 |
GKIDS |
||||||
9/5/2025 |
Light of the World |
Salvation Poem Project |
||||||
9/5/2025 |
Twinless |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
9/12/2025 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony Pictures |
$38,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$57,000,000 |
$109,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
9/12/2025 |
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale |
Focus Features |
$14,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$39,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
9/12/2025 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
9/12/2025 |
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
9/12/2025 |
Toy Story (30th Anniversary) |
Disney |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$2,300,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
9/18/2025 |
Sight & Sound Presents: NOAH – Live! |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
9/18/2025 |
Afterburn |
Falling Forward Films |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
Apollo 13 (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey |
Sony Pictures |
$13,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
9/19/2025 |
Him |
Universal Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
9/19/2025 |
The Senior |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
9/19/2025 |
Waltzing With Brando |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
The Strangers: Chapter 2 |
Lionsgate |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Anemone (Limited) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Avatar: The Way of Water (2025 Re-Release) |
Disney |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Bone Lake |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Casper (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Good Boy |
IFC Entertainment Group |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
The Smashing Machine |
A24 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.