The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- November 14:
- Lionsgate and Paramount go to head-to-head on this mid-month frame with Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and The Running Man, respectively. We expect the former to perform strongest among older audiences with a slight lean toward women as the franchise’s first sequel eased 44 percent in domestic box office and is now nine years removed from this follow-up.
- Conversely, The Running Man is targeting young and older male audiences with filmmaker Edgar Wright’s fan base in tow, not to mention star Glenn Powell’s budding popularity in the wake of Twisters, Anyone But You, and Top Gun: Maverick. It’s primary source of competition will be the second frame of Predator: Badlands if that title’s reception is strong enough.
- Both films could enjoy long runways with Thanksgiving and the holiday season beginning in earnest two weeks later, particularly if word of mouth amps up one or both. Running Man, in particular, has upside to behave as a semi-original film for modern audiences unfamiliar with the original Stephen King book or 1987 film led by Arnold Schwarzenegger. It’ll be the freshest male-driven marquee release against the upcoming openings of Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2.
- Countering those debuts will be Osgood Perkins’ next original horror, Keeper. Post-Halloween genre releases have historically not capitalized on the spooky season past, so we’re currently projecting this to perform more in line with last year’s fellow November release Heretic than Perkins’ The Monkey or Longlegs.
- Still, this weekend is poised to be a calm-before-the-storm scenario with the aforementioned Wicked conclusion on deck for November 21 and Thanksgiving break less than a week after that.
- Closer to the home front:
- Tron: Ares continues to pace steadily in line with expectations ahead of next week’s anticipated opening. We’ll see how much casual audience interest can be generated by the Disney marketing machine for a very fan-friendly franchise title. Pre-sales remain heavily dependent on premium, IMAX, and some 3D formats.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/2/25
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Target OW Chg from Last Update |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
10/10/2025 |
Roofman |
Paramount Pictures |
$6,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
|||
10/10/2025 |
Soul on Fire |
Sony Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
|||
10/10/2025 |
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$44,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$110,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
|||
10/17/2025 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$84,000,000 |
|||
10/17/2025 |
Good Fortune |
Lionsgate |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
|||
10/17/2025 |
Pets on a Train |
Viva Pictures |
|||||||
10/17/2025 |
Truth & Treason |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,300,000 |
$10,000,000 |
|||
10/24/2025 |
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc |
Sony Pictures |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
|||
10/24/2025 |
Regretting You |
Paramount Pictures |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
|||
10/24/2025 |
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere |
Disney |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
|||
10/31/2025 |
Back to the Future (40th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$11,250,000 |
|||
10/31/2025 |
Bugonia (Wide Expansion) |
Focus Features |
$1,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
|||
11/7/2025 |
Christy |
Black Bear |
|||||||
11/7/2025 |
Predator: Badlands |
Disney |
|||||||
11/7/2025 |
Sarah’s Oil |
Amazon MGM Studios |
|||||||
11/14/2025 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
available on Substack |
||||||
11/14/2025 |
Keeper |
NEON |
available on Substack |
||||||
11/14/2025 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount Pictures |
available on Substack |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.